200 Years of Markets in 60 Minutes (Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid) | #618

The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing

The Idea Farm

Management, Investing, Business

4.8 • 978 Ratings

🗓️ 13 February 2026

⏱️ 60 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today’s guest is Jim Reid, Global Head of Macro Research at Deutsche Bank. In today’s episode, Jim walks through lessons from his annual report, The Ultimate Guide to Long-Term Investing, which covers over 200 years of market data from 56 countries. He explains why cash is one of the riskiest long-term assets, how inflation quietly destroys wealth, and why valuation is the single most reliable predictor of long-term returns. He also discusses how fiat money has reshaped bonds, gold, and equities since 1971. To close, Jim reminds us that history consistently rewards investors who buy cheap, diversify globally, and respect long-term market cycles. (0:00) Starts (1:54) Importance of real vs nominal returns (5:36) Historical returns of gold (8:28) Global investment opportunities (18:06) Bond market performance and growth's impact on asset prices (23:11) Potential impact of AI (30:34) Valuation importance (37:03) Index weighting strategies (42:43) Predictors of bond performance and equity return distribution (47:01) Historical periods of high valuations (52:45) Global banking and stock market performance (55:12) Impact of AI on economics ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: Register for Alpha Architect’s LIVE HIDE webinar on March 26th ⁠here⁠. Want to Learn More about Alpha Architect? Visit ⁠www.funds.alphaarchitect.com⁠ Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to the Medfavor show, where the focus is on helping you grow and preserve your wealth.
0:10.9	Join us as we discuss the craft of investing and uncover new and profitable ideas, all to help you grow wealthier and wiser.
0:16.9	Better investing starts here.
0:19.5	Metfabor is the co-founder and chief investment officer at Cambria Investment Management.
0:22.5	Did it industry regulations, he will not discuss any of Cambri's funds on this podcast.
0:25.8	All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not reflect
0:28.9	the opinion of Cambria Investment Management or its affiliates.
0:31.2	For more information, visit camriainvestments.com.
0:35.1	If you've been hearing more about 351 exchanges and still have questions, you're not alone.
0:40.8	Eligibility rules, asset requirements, timelines, and tax loss treatment all matter, and understanding them up front is critical.
0:48.8	Alpha Architect has operated over 50 351 exchange launches, and they've seen firsthand where advisors need clarity most.
0:56.8	That experience informs the education first approach, including their 351 education center
1:02.0	with short videos, visuals, and on-demand resources. On February 3rd, they're hosting a live
1:08.2	educational webinar to walk through common FAQs, real-world use
1:12.3	cases, and lessons learned from prior 351 exchanges, plus a look at upcoming fun launches
1:17.6	designed to address complex portfolios. Register using the link in the show notes.
1:25.0	Welcome back, everybody. Happy almost Valentine's Day. Today we got the author of one of my
1:31.2	favorite pieces of all of 2025 on the show. We're joined by Jim Reed, Global Head of Macro
1:37.8	Research and Thematic Strategy at Deutsche Bank. Jim's annual report called The ultimate guide to long-term investing as a must
1:46.3	read for all investors with over 200 years of market data from over 50 countries. Jim, welcome
1:52.0	the show. Thank you for the invite. It's really thrilled to be on. So thank you.
1:57.6	One of the things you talk about, and it's a good kickoff question, is this idea and the
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