$200 Oil by June?—The Biggest Oil Shock in History | Rory Johnston on The Hormuz Crisis

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Technology, Tech News, News

4.7 • 1.2K Ratings

🗓️ 29 April 2026

⏱️ 98 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Rory Johnston, the “oil quant,” joins us to explain why the Hormuz crisis could become the biggest oil shock in history. Oil markets are already screaming. Supply is trapped, inventories are being drained, and the market may still be underpricing the scale of the disruption. If the Strait stays closed, Rory says the path to $200 oil is no longer crazy. It may be the next stop. This is oil, geopolitics, inflation, and markets all colliding at once. ------ 📣SPOTIFY PREMIUM RSS FEED | USE CODE: SPOTIFY24 https://bankless.cc/spotify-premium ------ 🔮POLYMARKET | #1 PREDICTION MARKET https://bankless.cc/polymarket-podcast 🟦 COINBASE ONE | GET 20% OFF https://bankless.cc/coinbase-one 🦊 METAMASK | DOWNLOAD NOW https://go.metamask.io/BL-Pod-Download 🌐BRIX | EMERGING MARKET YIELD https://bankless.cc/brix 💰NEXO | YIELD + CREDIT LINE https://bankless.cc/nexo 🧭OKX | TRADE, EARN, PAY https://app.okx.com/join/USBANKLESS ------ TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:17 What is a Barrel of Oil? 7:04 How is Oil Transported? 8:24 Is Oil Fungible? 13:25 Oil Then Vs Now 17:10 Peak Oil? 24:59 Hydrocarbon World Distribution 29:32 What is Spare Capacity? 32:14 Inventories in the Buffer System 35:04 Oil Futures 38:59 Oil Curve 44:51 Economic Implications of Oil Markets 48:48 Straight of Hormuz 55:30 Future Oil Price Action 1:03:53 Steelmanning the Market Reaction 1:13:23 When will the Straight Open? 1:21:57 Is the USA Winning? 1:27:49 Pressuring Iran 1:31:48 Signals to Watch 1:33:36 Fast Forward to 2050 1:38:38 Closing & Disclaimers ------ RESOURCES Rory Johnston https://x.com/Rory_Johnston Commodity Context https://www.commoditycontext.com/ ------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures⁠

Transcript

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0:00.0	I mean, the major factor, the reason
0:01.8	equity markets are so high right now
0:02.9	is all of this enthusiasm,
0:04.4	all this optimism around AI penetration,
0:07.0	everything else.
0:08.0	We are debating.
0:10.4	You know, we have the world,
0:11.7	we have all-time high equity markets
0:13.0	driven by the most energy-intensive technology
0:16.3	we've ever developed
0:17.4	in the middle of the largest energy shock in history.
0:20.6	It's a very, very funny juxtaposition.
0:25.9	Bankless Nation, we are here with Rory Johnston.
0:28.0	He is the most cited independent oil analyst out of the Hormuz crisis.
0:32.2	He writes the commodity context substack.
0:35.1	Lynn Alden calls him her oil quant.
0:39.3	Roy Johnson, welcome to bankless.
0:41.7	Thank you so much for having me.
0:43.3	There is a ton of material that I want to get through.
0:46.1	Current events just command your insight and attention and podcasters do the same for all of your analysis.
0:54.5	Roy, we've never done an oil episode before.
0:58.0	So before we get into the meat of like the current events,
	...

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