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Uncharted with Hannah Fry

20. The Confidence Trick

Uncharted with Hannah Fry

BBC

Science

4.8609 Ratings

🗓️ 9 September 2024

⏱️ 18 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

An ambitious portfolio manager stumbles upon a perfect graph. It outlines eye watering profits. But something doesn't quite add up - could this graph be accurate? Or does it hide a far more sinister truth?

Producer Lauren Armstrong Carter Sound Designer: Jon Nicholls Story Editor: John Yorke

Transcript

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0:00.0

BBC Sounds, Music, Radio, Podcasts.

0:09.0

It's October 2005 in a sterile office in Boston,

0:13.8

and a young, inexperienced legal clerk is staring down at the title of a report.

0:20.2

It reads, the world's largest hedge fund of a report. It reads,

0:23.5

The World's Largest Hedge Fund is a fraud.

0:25.9

Imaginative, if nothing else.

0:28.4

The Clark's eyes narrow as he readies himself to speed scan 25 pages of dense research.

0:32.6

R. Clark works at the Securities and Exchange Commission.

0:36.0

So tips like this are a regular occurrence.

0:38.8

But there is something odd about this one. It's not just that it's so detailed. What's written is

0:44.6

unsettling. There's the litany of outrageous accusations. Again, not uncommon. But the desperate

0:51.8

plea for help and mathematical data catch his eye.

0:56.5

If true, this report would point to the impossible.

1:02.9

The clerk turns a page and his tired eyes stop on something new.

1:07.5

A single, simple graph.

1:10.4

Shooting from left to right across the X and Y axes are two lines.

1:15.0

One line charts the movements of the S&P 500 stock index over time. It's a line that traces the

1:21.6

ups and downs of America's corporate giants, a line that is jagged and unstable, littered with sudden hikes and quick dives,

1:29.9

just as it should be. The second line, though, is different. Far from uneven, it is beautifully

1:37.2

smooth, as if its author had drawn an elegant upward slope from left to right. This was the recorded growth of a hedge fund.

1:47.0

Could this difference be possible? Could a hedge fund simply expand with little interruption for

1:55.0

15 years? It would have to be completely immune to the noise and the mess of the markets.

...

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