195- New Year, New Stock Market Outlook

InvestED: The Rule #1 Investing Podcast

Phil Town & Danielle Town

Investing, Business

4.6 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 8 January 2019

⏱️ 37 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

This week we discuss why index investing isn’t really speculating because you’re betting on the US to be more prosperous in 10 years than it is today because indexes parallel the US stock market. We talk about what makes the US a good economy (and stock market) to bet on. We analyze the United States using the 4Ms of investing. We discuss why the average PE Ratio of the S&P 500 for the last 100 years has been about 15. Finally, we talk about how recessions typically cycle and what’s going on with the Federal Reserve. Let’s dive into what’s going to happen 2019, if we’re headed for a recession, and the state of the market. For show notes and more information, visit investedpodcast.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Are you ready for a Monzo Business Bank Account?
0:03.3	Heather from the Accountant's Growth Club was,
0:05.3	knowing what cash I have is really important and Monzo Business makes it easy.
0:09.8	It automatically puts 20% of my income into a tax pot.
0:14.0	When it's time to pay your VAT, I always know the money's there.
0:17.0	If you're ready for a Monzo business account, apply today.
0:20.0	Just search Monzo Business. Only sole traders or limited company directors in the UK can apply.
0:25.0	Get tax pots with Monzo Business Pro for £5 a month.
0:28.1	Te's and sees apply. Hey everybody this is Phil Town and this is Phil Town and this is Danielle Town
0:38.6	welcome to Invest It the podcast where we are studying hard to learn how to invest properly like Warren Buffett.
0:47.0	Heck yeah. Heck yeah.
0:48.0	Yeah, I like that. Yeah. Investing properly. That's a loaded term right there, investing properly
0:54.3	particularly when you and I might disagree what investing even is
0:58.3	Which we often do which we often do but my personal view starting off with 2019 here is that investing is only
1:08.4	happening when you have near certainty that you are going to make money over the next 10 years in this
1:17.6	thing that you just bought because you bought it below its value with a margin of safety. That's investing.
1:27.0	Yeah, I think you've kind of convinced me about that. I think the important element is near certainty. Like we can never be totally
1:37.8	certain. There's all kinds of stuff that can happen that can affect a given company or a given industry that we can't
1:46.2	predict and I think actually 2018 was a great example of that with a lot of
1:50.6	political stuff interfering with the markets in ways that even many
1:56.1	seasoned investors didn't predict and I think more of the same will happen in 2019
2:00.8	so there's always sort of these outside forces that can affect things. But yeah, I think, I think for me, let's have this be our first
	...

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