15% to the Treasury: Trump’s Nvidia Export Kickback!
Patrick Boyle On Finance
Patrick Boyle
4.9 • 308 Ratings
🗓️ 20 August 2025
⏱️ 29 minutes
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Summary
In weeks podcast, we unpack Donald Trump’s controversial deal with Nvidia and AMD — a 15% revenue-sharing arrangement that allows U.S. AI chips to be exported to China.
Is this a clever geopolitical strategy or a dangerous precedent that monetizes national security?
We explore:How the deal was brokered and what it means for U.S. trade policyLegal and constitutional concerns surrounding export controlsStrategic risks of enabling China’s AI developmentComparisons to China’s rare earth leverage and Xi Jinping’s CEO controlThe broader pattern of Trump’s executive interference in private enterpriseFeaturing analysis on the H20 chip, inference bottlenecks, golden shares, and the future of American capitalism.
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Transcript
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| 0:49.0 | trust. Get started at vanta.com slash calm. In a move that rewrites the rules of American capitalism, NVIDIA and AMD have agreed this week to pay the US government 15% of the revenues from chip sales in China, not as a tax or as a royalty, but as a price for permission to export recently restricted |
| 1:12.5 | AI chips to China. |
| 1:14.7 | This is not a tariff, it's not a licensing fee, it's not even a penalty, it's a cut, |
| 1:21.6 | a direct slice of corporate revenue handed to the federal government in exchange for the |
| 1:27.0 | right to export. The deal, personally |
| 1:29.9 | brokered by the president, applies to NVIDIA's H-20 and AMD's equivalent AI chips, both of which |
| 1:38.1 | were specifically designed to comply with earlier export restrictions. In return for export licenses, the companies will pay the US |
| 1:47.8 | Treasury an estimated $2 billion per year. This is not how American trade policy is supposed to work. |
| 1:56.9 | Traditionally, export controls are binary and based on national security decisions. |
| 2:02.9 | Either it's reasonable to sell a particular product abroad or it isn't. |
| 2:07.6 | You would think that national security concerns are non-negotiable, but this deal introduces |
| 2:14.4 | a third category, safe enough if the price is right. It's a transactional model |
| 2:20.3 | which sets a precedent which could reshape how the US government interacts with the business |
| 2:26.3 | community. Based on estimates from Bernstein research, NVIDIA would likely sell 1.5 million H20 chips in China this year, generating |
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