“15% Chance Republicans WIN!” - California Dems Panics A GOP Candidate Win
Valuetainment
Valuetainment Episodes
4.8 • 1.7K Ratings
🗓️ 5 April 2026
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
A shocking 15% scenario could flip California’s governor race, but only if Republicans stop splitting the vote. The panel breaks down polling chaos, weak Democratic frontrunners, and why a fractured field could hand victory to the wrong candidate again.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | There is something, I don't know if we have the story here or not. |
| 0:02.0 | There's conversations about the fact that a couple of Republicans could potentially create some momentum and make it a little bit tough for California. Tom, you were sharing a number earlier today, the 15% number. You know which one I'm talking about? Yes, we do. Maybe you want to get into it for Californians to have a little bit of hope. Go ahead, Tom. Well, there's only, statistically speaking, there's only about a 15% chance of it right now, but what happens in California is... Is this the time where says, we know there's a risk ahead, a 15% chance of calamity? It's not a 15% chance of stubbing your toes. It's a 15% chance of losing the governorship, losing the down ballot races. Tom. |
| 0:38.2 | I'm excited for this. I see a lot of highlighted notes over there, Tom. Let's do it. |
| 0:41.2 | What it talks about, I put a post out about two weeks ago about the governor's race in Boccauton, Florida. |
| 0:49.0 | And this is exactly what happened. Two Republicans stayed in head-to-head with each other. |
| 0:55.7 | And because it was, |
| 1:01.3 | you know, not a primary, there's not a primary to say there will be one Republican. You had three people there, a Democrat and two Republicans, and the Democrat got elected with, by just a couple |
| 1:08.7 | votes, with 39% of the vote. So congratulations. Bocarton, Florida now has a mayor |
| 1:14.3 | that they didn't, that 61% of the people did not want because he got 39% because the other two |
| 1:19.8 | split the vote. This is coming to California. What they're worried about, they're worried about |
| 1:24.4 | too many Democrats on the ballot path. That's what they're worried about. And if there's only two Republicans and too many on the ballot, could one of them be like a 39% winner? |
| 1:36.3 | And that's why they're saying, well, there's only about a 15% chance of losing the governorship. |
| 1:41.3 | But the fact that they're even talking about is telling you what's up. |
| 1:44.8 | And they're also very, very worried about what has been, regardless of the economy, there has |
| 1:51.2 | been progressive, conservative vote progress, especially in the central state and down |
| 1:57.9 | inland Orange County making a comeback and outside san diego so could there be |
| 2:04.7 | enough that one of those republicans gets 33% of the vote and there's such a splintering that he gets |
| 2:12.3 | elected so it's it's a long shot but that's what they're talking about pat and the fact they're |
| 2:17.0 | talking about you know it means they're thinking about it. |
| 2:18.9 | And they're thinking about it. |
| 2:20.2 | They don't like it. |
| 2:21.1 | Meanwhile, their leading Democrat candidate, which is, you know, |
... |
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