141: The “Doom Loop” That Could Crash Commercial Real Estate w/Richard Barkham

On The Market

BiggerPockets

News, Education, Business, Investing

4.8 • 859 Ratings

🗓️ 18 September 2023

⏱️ 49 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The “Doom Loop” could cause banks, businesses, and commercial real estate to crash. With real estate valuations down, property owners begin to default, and credit tightens, causing the same cycle to repeat itself again and again, pulling banks and balance sheets down until we reach a bottom. But is this “Doom Loop” scenario just feeding the fear of a housing market crash, or are we months away from this becoming our new reality? We asked Richard Barkham, Global Chief Economist of CBRE, his take on what could cause a “Doom Loop” and what we should be prepared for. Richard’s team handles some of the planet’s most comprehensive commercial real estate data. When the masses run away in fear, Richard’s team sees opportunity, and if you listen to today’s episode, you’ll know exactly where the prices are too low to pass on. Richard gives his economic forecast for the next year, when the US could enter a recession, how high unemployment could get, and where commercial real estate prices are heading. While some commercial real estate sectors are facing dramatic price declines, others are looking surprisingly strong. But with a weaker economy and fear of a “Doom Loop” taking hold, are everyday investors safe from this potential economic catastrophe? In This Episode We Cover: he real estate “Doom Loop” explained and what could cause this chain reaction to tank asset prices The “global slowdown” and recession predictions for 2023 and 2024 The weakest and strongest sectors of commercial real estate (and which ones are underpriced) Cap rate updates and what will finally cause prices to improve again Best buying opportunities in 2023 and assets with rising rents and declining prices Unemployment, inflation, deflation, and what we can expect over the next year And So Much More! Links from the Show Find an Agent Find a Lender BiggerPockets Forums BiggerPockets Agent BiggerPockets Bootcamps Join BiggerPockets for FREE On The Market Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums Subscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube Channel Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Dave's Instagram James' BiggerPockets Profile James' Instagram The Biggest Crash Imaginable is Coming For Commercial Assets Grab CBRE’s “Midyear Global Real Estate Market Outlook 2023” Books Mentioned in the Show Real Estate by the Numbers by Dave Meyer Connect with Richard: Richard's LinkedIn Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-141 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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