#102 - Michael Osterholm, Ph.D.: COVID-19—Lessons learned, challenges ahead, and reasons for optimism and concern

The Peter Attia Drive

Peter Attia, MD

Health & Fitness, Medicine, Fitness

4.7 • 7.3K Ratings

🗓️ 31 March 2020

⏱️ 82 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In this episode, Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota and author of Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs, provides an overview on the COVID-19 pandemic in regards to what has happened to date, what we’ve learned about how the disease spreads, and his optimism and pessimism about what potentially lies ahead. Michael gives his take on the true case fatality rate, why it differs around the world, and which underlying conditions, such as obesity, impact risk of severe illness and death. We also discuss the outlook regarding vaccines, repurposed drugs/antivirals for treatment, and Michael’s growing concern about supply chain limitations with respect to drugs, vaccines, n95 masks, and testing kits.

We discuss:

Recapping the brief history of COVID-19 and what potentially lies ahead [2:15];
Some positive news about immunity and reinfection [10:45];
Case fatality rate—The challenge in finding the true rate, difference by country, and the impact of age, underlying conditions, and obesity [13:00];
What has to be true for less than 100,000 Americans to die from COVID-19? [24:30];
How do we best protect healthcare workers? [29:45];
Concerns about testing capability—Reagent shortfall and a supply chain problem [39:30];
Vaccines and antivirals—The outlook, timing, and challenges [47:45];
Long term health of survivors of COVID-19 [56:45];
The impact of comorbidities—Diabetes, obesity, and immunosuppressed patients [59:30];
Understanding R0 and how the disease spreads [1:01:30];
The challenge of forecasting with so many unknown [1:08:00];
What explains the difference in cases and fatalities in different parts of the world? [1:14:30];
Repurposed drugs/antivirals being considered for treatment options—any optimism? [1:16:45];
A parting message from Michael about what lies ahead [1:18:30]; and
More.

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Transcript

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0:00.0	Hey everyone, welcome to the Drive Podcast.
0:13.0	I'm your host, Peter Atia.
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0:46.3	Now without further delay, here's today's episode.
0:51.0	Welcome back to another special episode of the Drive focusing on COVID-19.
0:55.7	My guest today is Dr. Michael Osterholm.
0:58.7	You may have seen Michael on the Joe Rogan podcast a few weeks ago.
1:02.2	I saw him then and was immediately impressed, reached out to him and asked if he'd like to
1:06.7	come on our show, which he graciously agreed to.
1:09.8	Michael is the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the
1:14.0	University of Minnesota.
1:15.0	He's also the author of a book that in many ways foreshadowed this.
1:19.1	The book is called Deadliest Enemy, Our War Against Deadly Germs.
1:23.0	And in that book, in particular, he foreshadows a lot of what we're going through today.
1:27.7	Mike and I in this discussion talk about everything from our best understanding of what's
	...

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