Well ETS put a floor under crypto. Hi everyone. Welcome to the Real Vision daily briefing with me today is

Nicole Atchison, author of the sub-stack newsletter. crypto is macro now. Hi Noel.

Maggie, so good to see you. How are you? Good, good. So good to see you as always. And we have a ton to catch up with in both the world of macro and crypto, which as we always say when you're on and you were so pressing about this are really kind of intertwined more than they ever were before.

But let's start out on the macro front. We saw stocks, U.S. stocks rebound today and Treasury yields dip a little as creditors try to weigh, I think the Fed's next move is really hanging over everything, right?

We had some mixed data this week, we get the PCE inflation reading on Friday. What's your outlook for monetary policy?

One thing I've been trying to figure out Maggie is the Fed insists that its

policy is restrictive. We've heard, Chairman Powell say there's many times and many of the

FMC members repeat that and I'm trying to figure out what are they talking about? Why do they think it is

restrictive? We have the stock market consistently breaking through

all-time highs. We have financial conditions. As loose they were at the beginning of

2022 before the rate hikes even started, which is crazy.

You have annualized growth in consumer credit ticking up.

It is now higher than it was before the pandemic.

Corporate loans perhaps are weak, but corporates are not exactly

struggling in the bond market. Credit spreads are close to record lows. And what

else?

Oh, he's annualized, so not annualized, sorry, but non-financial corporate profits are doing pretty well.

They've ticked down maybe a tiny bit, but they're still much higher than they were before the pandemic.

So what exactly does the Fed mean that its policy is restrictive?

I'm just not seeing that. A better question relevant to what you are asking actually

is why would it lower rates in this scenario?

One good answer to that would be because it said it would.

...