10 Super Bowl Picks You Must Take Now (2023)
The Fantasy Football Club with Sal Vetri
Sal Vetri
5.0 • 784 Ratings
🗓️ 4 February 2023
⏱️ 12 minutes
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Summary
10 Super Bowl Picks You Must Take Now (2023)
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | $7.6 billion will be wagered on the Super Bowl this year. And there's over a thousand different |
| 0:05.7 | bets you can make, but which ones are the best options? Well, I'm glad you ask, because these are |
| 0:10.1 | the 10 best Super Bowl bets for 2023. And it'll start with the most notable player in the game, |
| 0:14.9 | which normally we don't find great bets here in Patrick Mahomes. I want to look at his pass-a-tent prop at 38.5. Now, on the season, Mahomes averaged |
| 0:21.9 | 38.1 attempts per game, which was the third highest on the year. So his prop said at 38 and a half, |
| 0:26.3 | is this just the perfect line and we have to stay off? Well, the quick answer is no, because that |
| 0:30.8 | takes into account all of his games. But what we want to look at are the games that matter and most resemble this one. Because in this game, |
| 0:37.6 | the Chiefs, they actually opened his two-point favorites, but now in most spots, they're a point |
| 0:41.1 | and a half to two-point underdog. So what we want to look at is, what does Mahomes do when he's |
| 0:45.2 | an underdog? Well, I spend some time diving into this and the results are pretty interesting. Since the |
| 0:49.3 | start of 2019, the Chiefs and Mahomes have been an underdog seven times when he plays, and in those games, |
| 0:54.3 | he averages 43.3 pass attempts. That breaks down to him throwing 14% more than his average, |
| 1:00.9 | and that's held up this year as well in his one game as an underdog throwing over 40 times. |
| 1:05.1 | So with this information at our disposal, we go ahead and take Mahomes over 38.5 pass attempts. |
| 1:10.3 | So that's bet number one. For the second option here, I want to slide into a wide receiver on the Eagles, and it's maybe not who you think. |
| 1:15.6 | It's going to be Quez Watkins, who right now has a receiving yards prop at 14 and a half. |
| 1:20.6 | And here's the crazy thing. |
| 1:21.6 | So far this postseason, in the two playoff games, Quezackens has a whopping zero catches. And I don't know if you know this, |
| 1:28.1 | but you can't get any yards if you don't get any catches. So you might be saying what gives. |
| 1:31.3 | And the very quick answer is just two blowouts are taking Waukins off the field more. |
| 1:35.2 | You see, he's the third wide receiver and three wide receiver sets. But when they're winning |
| 1:38.3 | by a lot, they don't need to pass. They take him off the field, put another tight end on the field, and run the ball. And on the year, Watkins is averaging 20.7 routes run per game. That's how many times he's out there when they're passing the ball, |
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