Hello, welcome to the PFF Fancy Football Podcast. I'm your host Ian Hartz and we have a very special edition of our 10 questions episode today.

I am joined by PFF data scientists and hosts of the unexpected points podcast Kevin Cole, you can find on Twitter at Kevin Cole, PFF Kevin.

I believe this is your second time on the podcast. Thanks for the time man and happy week for it. Yeah, yeah, happy week for you. Yeah, I believe it is.

I don't know how many times I need to get to become the most frequent guest like another 50 or something like that.

Something like that. I think Andrew and Joanna are holding it down, but yeah, your own podcast. Man, I'm not trying to, yes, yeah, I believe sometime for your family.

That's true. I'm a solo podcast, which I went for about an hour and a half all by myself. So I can't tell if that makes me some sort of special talent or just a complete psycho who likes to hear their own voice. It's somewhere in between probably.

No, I tried doing that last year and I just quickly realized how hard it is to like, you know, swallow and breathe while you're talking on stop for 30 minutes and all the reviews on the podcast let me know. So I find it a little better. It gets smart people like yourself and then I don't have to, you know, make discussing noises.

And the microphone has often great stuff all around and people we have a very special edition of podcasts coming like I said before now Kevin's podcast might be titled unexpected points, but a little bit of a play on words there because our expected points tool is one of the many things that Kevin and our great data scientists provide behind the scenes at pf.

So basically we have a page and a tool on pf that calculates a player's expected points based on their volume and then what they actually achieved. This is primarily used for identifying potential over an undervalued players.

So Kevin, we have three weeks now 2021 data. It's good. It's not perfect. I would still expect to see some flukiness, some randomness and you know, it's a 17 game.

So we can give sample of the NFL small enough already three we need to take with a little bit green salt, but basically we're going to go over the top over and under performers see who we might then could potentially overt one way or another the rest of the way.

So let's kick things off with the quarterback room because we have four guys popping with over 20 fancy points over expectation Russell Wilson, Mattie Stafford, Patrick Mahomes and Kyler.

Is there one of these guys that you could just see fall back to earth a little bit more than others here moving forward.

Yeah, I mean, okay, well, just a little background on on the tool. I mean, I would say if we were going to like rank order the positions by usefulness. I guess you could say of the tool quarterback might be near the bottom.

I mean, I think it's important context, but like you control your own efficiency a lot more as a quarterback than you do for any other position. So like, you know, if you're if you're going to sit around, you're going to go, you know what, that Patrick Mahomes guy that guy's going to regress because he keeps on being higher than what we're expecting him to be in this

suspected point points tool, you know, you're going to be talking about that every single week or the next 10 years and probably never be fully correct on that.

So with that context in mind, you want to look for like true, true outliers here. And I think for Russell Wilson, we saw a little bit of a regression last week.

And I think we look at a bunch of different numbers on here, even his success rate on dropbacks was much, much lower than the efficiency was because of those huge plays that he was making particularly to Tyler lock it those first couple of weeks that came back a little bit last week.

And I think moving forward, he's probably the guy that I would say that could pull back a little bit. I think staffer falls into that category second most. And then my homes would be the guy I just be most confident in going forward because he's been doing it literally says the first snap that he took in the NFL until now.

And that's the case with a lot of these guys when we see AJ Brown just breaking every single, you know, measure we have for expected years for target and things like that.

You know, at some point you'd also just have to say, hey, maybe this guy is a great player. And I like to point to about quarterbacks being with control their efficiency more than most other positions with Russ man, like we saw this kind of play out last year, like he was a little beater in the first half. And then all of a sudden, all those, you know, moon balls as a bossman likes to call him.

Stop to come into fruition quite as much. It's just one of these things, man, where we saw last week title lock it. We will see what the injury reports say he was able to stay in the game. But when he had the entire team huddle around him and makes you think like, man, they're a locker or mecca entry from kind of being in a pretty scary place in this offense.

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