Welcome to the show. Later on in the program when we look at some viewer emails. I'm going to talk about some pretty consistent criticism that I'm receiving, not unfair, but I would argue a little bit misplaced, that I'm not being

optimistic enough about Kamala Harris's chances in November.

You know, yesterday I was speaking here at the conference in Las Vegas with a bunch of other people,

Sam Cedar, Farron Cousins and others, about the polling situation and the indicators we have as to what's going to happen

and I want to outline for you what I see as the biggest red flag right now in the polling.

Now let me make a couple of disclaimers after this segment I'm not going to do

any more polling stuff today other than just responding to that email at the end of

the show ultimately I don't believe that how I talk about how the polling looks has any impact on the eventual results.

I think fundamentally, this program is not big enough, and I'm mostly preaching to people who are already planning to vote for

Kamala Harris that I don't see that the way I couch things would really impact

results and number three I don't think it makes any sense to say we should act more optimistic than the data say because what?

Okay, so with that out of the way, here for me is the most concerning polling sign that I see in this race. Real clear politics,

whatever you think of them, allows you to look not just at what does polling look

like today, but what did polling look like for Biden Trump on this same day in 2020, and

what did polling look like for Clinton Trump on this same day in 2016 and I

hate to tell you it doesn't look particularly good right now Kamala Harris leads by two nationally. On this day in 2020, Biden led by nine, and on this day in 2016 Hillary Clinton led by almost 5. If you look at the

swing states I hate that this is what's going on but you see the exact same

sort of a phenomenon right? going on this

this day in the exact same sort of a phenomenon. Right now, Trump is leading by 1.4 in Arizona. On this day in 2020,

Biden led by almost three and that is a very concerning sign. We'll go through these

quickly. In Nevada Harris is winning by one but Biden was winning by six at this point.

Harris is winning by under one in Wisconsin,

...