073 - Bayes' Theorem

You Are Not So Smart

Science, Psychology, Brain, Business, Mental Health, Culture, Neuroscience, Mind, Health

4.6 • 1.8K Ratings

🗓️ 8 April 2016

⏱️ 88 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

We don’t treat all of our beliefs equally. For s…

Transcript

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0:00.0	Oh, yeah.
0:01.0	Oh, and uh.
0:02.0	Oh.
0:04.0	Okay.
0:05.0	He moved down and in the middle of the party,
0:09.0	that man.
0:10.0	Yeah, with the cool, we look at the best. They were quiet. Welcome to the You Are Not So Smart Podcast.
0:27.0	Episode 73. Oh, oh, oh, oh, and you can be
0:33.6	and do me.
0:34.6	Oh, and do you.
0:37.0	Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, a thought experiment. I want you to imagine for a moment that you are going through resumes.
0:51.0	You're looking at job applicants and you realize you've misplaced one.
0:55.8	Hmm. You think, where does this go. There are exactly 100 applicants for this job. 70 of them are lawyers and 30 are
1:19.5	engineers and you just need to figure out which stack, the lawyer stack or the engineer stack, this resume needs to go back to.
1:27.5	But for some reason, the only thing that is legible on the paperwork is the person's personality profile which says she's a bit of a loner
1:36.3	doesn't have very many friends didn't have very many friends in college she owns three cats
1:40.8	she makes her bed every morning after waking up and is extremely
1:44.9	devoted to order in all things. So here's the question. Based on the
1:50.4	information at hand, is it more likely that the applicant is a lawyer or an engineer?
1:57.0	Now that's a thought experiment,
2:03.0	yes, but it's actually a paraphrasing of a question
2:06.0	that psychologist Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky
	...

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