Fred Lonnie's Ace Hardware in Garden Stores brings you a garage logic podcast number 384 May 18th, 2020.

It was 93 degrees was the high on this day and that was in 2012 and it was as chilly as 27 degrees in 1915.

I bet in 2012 when it was 93 kids were swimming on those aquacide weed-free beaches.

And now from the mayor's office above the boat house on the east shore of Spoon Link.

It's garage logic with rookie on production Chris Reaver's director of social media John Hyde in the newsroom and occasionally Kenny from the Krabby Coffee Shop.

Here is your flashlight king fireworks commissioner and keeper of common sense your mayor Joe Sunchere.

I was going to wait until the end of May to do this but the pattern is so clear I can do it today.

On Thursday, which was, and I have all the dates here, last Thursday was May 14th.

And that was in the day after the governor had ease to stay at home restrictions.

And I was reading about it in the paper and it said this is from last Thursday.

The latest model also predicted 1700 deaths in Minnesota by the end of May, though with 638 COVID-19 deaths as of Wednesday that would have been May 13th.

The state is behind that pace.

Okay, so I circled that and I thought that's more than a thousand deaths in 17 days.

That didn't seem right to me.

Now we go to the Saturday, Saturday paper as a result of the latest modeling this week predicted 1,441 deaths by the end of May under a scenario by which the state wide state home order ended on Monday.

The modeling also predicted a surge of cases by June 29th.

Okay, so on Thursday, May 14th, the model said 1700 deaths by the end of May.

The modeling two days later on Saturday, May 16th said 1,441 deaths.

Now let's go to yesterday's paper.

Earlier this month, Governor Tim Wall suggested Minnesota was on a pace record, a thousand deaths by the end of May.

These models are worthless.

All models are wrong, some are useful.

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