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More or Less

03 Sep 2010

More or Less

BBC

News Commentary, Science, Mathematics, News

4.63.7K Ratings

🗓️ 3 September 2010

⏱️ 28 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

How reliable are life expectancy figures? Can cycling ever be safer than driving? And, what can maths tell us about guerilla insurgencies?

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Thank you for downloading this week's more or less podcast. Here's Tim Harford.

0:04.3

Hello and welcome to more or less. If numbers were food, we'd be ready steady cook.

0:10.0

This week we'll be whipping up a feast from the most unlikely ingredients.

0:13.9

War, bad science, bicycling, yes, again, and death.

0:19.3

It's 316 times more difficult to kill 10 times more people.

0:23.9

But first, amid this summer's political argument about public sector pensions

0:28.4

described as unaffordable by Nick Clegg, journalists began to quote life expectancy figures,

0:33.5

which is fair enough because the longer we live, the less affordable our pensions become.

0:37.6

I understand that there is an upside to living longer too.

0:40.8

The trouble is, there are several ways you can work out life expectancy, and over the years,

0:45.5

few have proved very reliable. Listen to Paul Sweating, wrote to us,

0:49.6

to query figures used in a BBC News online report.

0:53.0

It was an article I saw which was talking about the increase in pension age,

0:56.4

and talked about an increase in pension age from age 65 to 66, and then said the comparison,

1:01.1

the current life expectancy for men is 77, and it's 81 for women.

1:05.8

According to BBC News Online, a man retiring at 66 can expect a mere 11 years rest after

1:12.8

over 40 years of toil. But that's wrong, says Paul Sweating.

1:17.6

Who, when not listening to more or less, fills the lonely void by working at the University of Kent,

1:23.5

where it turns out he's professor of actual aerial science.

1:27.5

The number they quoted is what's called a period life expectancy from birth.

1:32.4

Say it was calculated using 2008 mortality data.

1:37.1

So what you would do, you would say, look at each age and see how many people there were of that

...

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