NPR.

There is an indicator that has an extremely good track record at predicting economic downturns.

It is accurately forecast every recession over the past six decades with no false positives.

It's called the yield curve.

A sign that a recession could be on the horizon. It's what everybody's talking about.

Over the past couple of weeks, this yield curve has been getting a lot of attention.

The yield curve inverting...

Our session fears are rising with the collapse of the spread between the two year and the

ten year bond yields.

Officially inverted yesterday.

And of course, indicator listeners have been writing in asking how urgently should we be

looking at what's happening with the yield curve right now?

You know, that is understandable because over the years, nobody has covered the yield curve

quite like the former co-host of the indicator, Cardiff Garcia.

I am kind of obsessed with the yield curve.

I find it fascinating. I find it mysterious.

Yeah, it's a t-shirt and it's a picture of an inverted yield curve.

And so we didn't quite feel right to just cover the yield curve without getting caught

of splicing.

So we called them up.

Hello!

Cardiff Garcia.

...