4.8 • 806 Ratings
🗓️ 22 May 2025
⏱️ 5 minutes
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0:00.0 | In offering a rare take on the current market, I come back to one of my investment truths. |
0:12.7 | The hardest day to invest is always today. |
0:17.1 | One of my earliest manager meetings was with Jeremy Grantham in 1992. |
0:22.8 | He made a compelling case that the bull market of the 1980s had run its course. |
0:28.9 | Around the same time, I learned about Warren Buffett and considered buying Berkshire Hathaway stock. |
0:35.1 | At $12,000 per share, Berkshire Class A was beyond my means. |
0:41.7 | I assumed I was too late. The easy money had already been made. But in hindsight, I was |
0:48.9 | standing at the starting line of one of history's greatest bull markets. |
0:59.6 | Over the past four years, we've hosted Capital Allocators University six times. |
1:06.7 | In each session, I presented a slide titled, The Hardest Day to Invest is Always Today. |
1:11.8 | And every time, new market conditions made that statement ring true. |
1:14.9 | Today is no exception. |
1:21.2 | We face heightened uncertainty from tariffs, economic conditions, valuations, private market liquidity, and crowding in alternatives. |
1:24.7 | Even leading macro strategists have begun to question the durability of U.S. exceptionalism |
1:29.6 | on the Capital Allocators podcast. When stocks, bonds, and alternatives all appear unattractive, |
1:37.0 | what's an investor to do? I've been thinking about the bull and bear cases across asset classes. |
1:43.8 | None of these observations are earth-shattering, |
1:45.7 | but collectively they illustrate a complex investment landscape with few compelling |
1:51.0 | opportunities. U.S. equities boast strong, resilient mega-cap companies, a lagging cohort with |
1:58.7 | catch-up potential, and implicit policy backstops from the Fed |
2:02.8 | and Treasury. But they face headwinds from high valuations, rising government debt, and |
2:09.1 | escalating economic and geopolitical risk. The familiar comfort of buying the dip no longer |
... |
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