18 years ago, I made a bet with Warren Buffett that pitted hedge funds against the S&P 500.

The bet took on a life of its own, and I benefited from it far differently than I imagined at its inception.

Almost two decades later, I have an idea for another bet with similar

intrigue. This what Ted's thinking, a new twist on an old bet with Buffett, describes that bet.

On a slow summer day 18 years ago, I began communicating with Warren Buffett about a bet that pitted the performance

of hedge funds against the S&P 500. The suggestion turned into a charitable 10-year wager

from January 1st, 2008 to December 31st, 2017. Carol Loomis announced Buffett's Big Bet in Fortune

magazine. It looked good for hedge funds in the

early years around the global financial crisis, but the market rallied strongly thereafter. By the

time of Berkshire's 2016 annual report, Warren took a victory lap. Lots of virtual ink has been spilled

about what the bet meant.

Warren initially assessed his odds of winning at 60%, but wrote in his 2016 annual letter as if

victory was preordained. I initially called it 85% in our favor. Lots of outcomes could have

happened, but only one did. In retrospect,

I was overconfident, but I caution those who read too much into the results.

Annie Duke calls this resulting, a behavioral bias where people judge the quality of a decision

based on the outcome rather than on the decision process itself.

I still believe the odds were heavily in favor of hedge funds at the time, and an unprecedented

act by the Fed bailed out the market from what could have been a lost decade.

Regardless of cause and effect, the bet led to unanticipated connections, relationships, and experiences.

Warren and I met for dinner nearly every year, typically accompanied by a guest or two.

Those guests included Todd Combs, Ted Weshler, my partner at the time and now Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, hedge fund founder

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