3.8 • 950 Ratings
🗓️ 1 October 2022
⏱️ 11 minutes
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0:00.0 | Welcome to the weekend fight presented by Wallstream Breakfast. |
0:03.0 | I'm Leslie Osman and we could use someone to help read the markets. |
0:07.0 | Joining us today is Michael Kramer, creator of Reading the Markets Podcast |
0:11.0 | and the founder of Mot Capital Management out of New York. |
0:14.3 | Thanks for joining us, Michael. |
0:15.8 | Hi, thanks for having me. |
0:18.4 | No surprise with the 75 basis point Fed hike, but with the market, the S&P 500 closing at new lows this week and the continued |
0:26.3 | strengthening of the US dollar. Has inflation peaked and what do you make of interest rates |
0:31.2 | going parabolic over the last year and even more so this past month? |
0:36.7 | So you know it's tricky because inflation from the headline standpoint of CPI and the numbers that we sort of typically associate with may have very well peaked. |
0:46.3 | I mean, the question is obviously is not if they peaked, but how quickly will it take for them to come down? |
0:53.0 | And is the type of inflation we're seeing more on a core level really sticky? |
0:57.5 | And a lot of the metrics out of like the Atlanta Fed and such show that 12-month sticky |
1:02.6 | CPI is actually at its highest level and is done anything but shown |
1:07.8 | any sign of beginning to come down. |
1:10.2 | And, you know, a lot of the, what we've seen in the interest rate market is really related to a couple of different things. |
1:17.8 | The first thing being that you have the market underpricing where the Fed was ultimately going to go and the it's not so much to |
1:25.1 | 75 basis point rate hike that's driving those rates higher but it's that plot that |
1:30.2 | indicated that the Fed was likely to raise rates to about 4.6% by the end of 2023. |
1:35.8 | And the market wasn't anticipating that type of movement. |
1:39.5 | And so you're seeing the market, especially on the short end of the yield curve really adjust to it. |
1:45.0 | And I expect that over the next six to 12 months, we're likely to see the two-year |
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