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More or Less: Behind the Stats

WS More or Less: Tulipmania mythology

More or Less: Behind the Stats

BBC

Business, Mathematics, Science, News Commentary, News

4.63.5K Ratings

🗓️ 14 May 2018

⏱️ 12 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The story goes that Amsterdam in the 1630’s was gripped by a mania for Tulip flowers. But then there was a crash in the market. People ended up bankrupt and threw themselves into canals. This story is still being trotted out when people talk about financial markets, lately as a comparison to buying and selling bitcoin. But how much of what we know of the Tulip craze is fact, and how much is myth? We speak to Anne Goldgar at Kings College London who explains all.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Just before this BBC podcast gets underway, here's something you may not know.

0:04.6

My name's Linda Davies and I Commission Podcasts for BBC Sounds.

0:08.4

As you'd expect, at the BBC we make podcasts of the very highest quality featuring the most knowledgeable

0:14.3

experts and genuinely engaging voices. What you may not know is that the BBC

0:20.4

makes podcasts about all kinds of things like pop stars,

0:24.6

poltergeist, cricket, and conspiracy theories and that's just a few examples.

0:29.7

If you'd like to discover something a little bit unexpected, find your next podcast over at BBC Sounds.

0:36.2

Hello and welcome to more or less, your guide to numbers in the news and in life.

0:41.5

I'm Tim Harford. How much is a thing worth an ounce of gold, a share in

0:47.2

apple a kilogram of apples? What's its value? This is one of the key questions in economics. We start learning about it in the playground,

0:57.0

a banana and a cheese string for a chocolate biscuit, seven random stickers for that shiny

1:02.4

of Leonel messy that's missing from your World Cup album.

1:06.0

But sometimes the market gets things wrong, and this is particularly true of a financial market.

1:12.0

In a regular market market you usually buy a

1:14.1

kilogram of apples to eat the apples rather than to resell them at a profit, but

1:19.2

financial markets are different. You buy a share of Apple because you've taken a view about the

1:24.4

future prospects for that company and its shares. Sometimes we overestimate the worth of a

1:30.0

product and the price is driven up and then as more and more investors decide to

1:34.2

pile in an attempt to make a quick buck the cost rises higher and higher until demand

1:40.0

collapses the bubble bursts and the price crashes. It's called a speculative bubble, and over the last few

1:47.8

hundred years, whenever we see something that we fear could end this way, there's one famous example we bring out again and again as a warning

1:56.5

from history about the dangers of greed.

...

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