Will the Iowa caucuses clarify anything? Lessons from history in an unpredictable year

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The Washington Post

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🗓️ 30 January 2020

⏱️ 32 minutes

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Summary

The 2020 Iowa caucuses present unprecedented challenges for some top Democratic contenders. Several candidates polling highest in Iowa have been unable to physically spend much time in the state in the final weeks before the vote. Senators Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar and Michael Bennet have been back in Washington serving as jurors in the Senate impeachment trial of President Trump.

Having a presence in those final weeks in Iowa can be the key to wooing any remaining undecided voters. And this year, there are quite a few.

What’s more, at least one candidate won’t even appear on the ballot in Iowa. Businessman Michael Bloomberg is opting out of the first four primaries and caucuses, making his entry on Super Tuesday ballots.

So, given these new complicating factors, does Iowa matter in a different way than in past elections? How important is this state to the final outcome of the primary? How might the Senators’ scaled-down presence in Iowa the final weeks before the caucuses, affect the results? And really, how much does winning Iowa matter for who eventually earns the nomination .. and the presidency?

To answer that question, we set out to learn from the past. Iowa elections expert Cary Covington and campaign reporter Holly Bailey lay out the complex landscape as we head toward the first state’s vote.

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Transcript

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0:00.0	On February 3rd, people will go to designated locations and get together.
0:12.0	Registered Democratic voters across more than 1600 precincts in Iowa and more than 90
0:17.0	satellite precincts outside the state.
0:19.0	And I think three or four are actually even in foreign countries.
0:23.0	There's one in France I know and Scotland.
0:26.0	These voters will gather in high school gyms, school cafeterias, churches and union homes.
0:31.0	And the Democrats gather together and form groups.
0:36.0	And they physically organize themselves in rooms according to candidates that they support.
0:41.0	There'll be a corner for Bernie Sanders, a zone for Elizabeth Warren, an area for Pete Buttigieg, you get the picture.
0:47.0	Voters physically stand with their fellow supporters.
0:49.0	They then count heads and any group that has less than 15% of the total must disband.
0:56.0	Those stranded voters then have three options.
0:59.0	They can either join a group supporting a viable candidate.
1:02.0	They can try to woo caucus goers away from other candidates to get theirs over that 15% mark.
1:08.0	Or they can leave.
1:10.0	Say goodnight. Go home.
1:12.0	And then that second round is the basis upon which delegates from the caucus are awarded to each candidate.
1:22.0	Then heads are counted again.
1:24.0	The percentages are calculated and each Democratic presidential candidate is allocated delegates.
1:30.0	The Democratic Iowa caucuses can be a pretty wild process often compared to a game of musical chairs.
1:39.0	For candidates though, this game has a lot riding on it, potentially the entire fate of their campaigns.
1:45.0	Iowa is the first state in the country to vote in the presidential primary season every four years.
	...

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