Will the Fed Be Forced To Make a Move Before March?

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Investing, Business News, News, Business

4.1 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 12 February 2022

⏱️ 35 minutes

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Summary

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February read 61.7, down from 67.2 in January, well short of a median estimate of 67, and the lowest print since October 2011 – even lower than April 2020, when the global economy was locked down. “To put it bluntly,” notes Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, “this was not a good report.” And the decline was largely attributable to waning confidence among the investor class, which fears the stock-market implications of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Regular consumers are simply in fear of falling behind because of inflation. An emerging Wall Street consensus now sees seven rate hikes coming down the pike, a process that could result in an inverted yield curve. And an inverted yield curve often means “recession.” Meanwhile, Bitcoin appears to be decoupling from other risk assets, perhaps on the perception that it’s an effective hedge against still-accelerating inflation. Bianco joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about next moves for the Fed amid increasing chatter about an emergency session ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s next regular meeting in March. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3HLyUX8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:35.2	Welcome to the Real Vision Daily Briefing. It's Friday, February 11, 2022.
0:40.1	I'm Ash Bennington, joined today by Jim Bianco. But first, let's do a quick look at US
0:45.6	equity markets because it's another ugly day. Looks like the big loser on the day,
0:50.7	major US equities indices is NASDAQ composite index still bouncing around a little bit,
0:55.6	but looks like off almost 2.8% closing out the day here at 13,791.
1:03.9	S&P 500 also off nearly 2% lost the 45 handle, 4,418 right now.
1:12.8	Dow Jones industrial average off down on the day, about 500 points just shy of 1.5% closing out the day
1:21.5	for 34,737. Not a pleasant, auspicious end of the week, Jim Bianco.
1:29.4	Tell us a little bit about what you're looking at.
1:32.7	Yeah, this was not a good end of the week at all. I think the thing you have to continue to look at
1:40.1	is the bond market and looking at the fear of inflation and what the Fed is going to do.
1:46.4	Remember, this market has been driven by liquidity for the last couple of years.
1:51.2	That liquidity is going away and now we're talking about speeding up
1:55.6	it going away. Whether we're going to get 50 basis points in March,
1:59.2	how much of a quantitative tightening we're going to get in the second half of the year,
	...

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