Today's animal spirits is brought to you by our friends and Y-charts.

Y-charts sent us a new report they put together called which leading indicators best predict

market declines. They looked at a bunch of stuff, the Buffett indicator, Topens Q, PE ratios,

Cape ratios, yield spreads between the 10 and 2 year treasury, 10 year and 3 month treasury bill,

year-over-year earnings growth, all of these, and then they figure out how many of the major

declines of these exactly predicted. For most of them, it's 50% or less. Some of them it's more like

one third of the time. And then when they look at the average time between these signals saying

everything is a little out of whack versus the time the peak actually happens. A lot of times it's

6, 12, 24 months into the future. So it's kind of interesting. They look at the times it happened

and kind of didn't. It's interesting because the one thing I come away with from this report

is that there are no indicators you can use every time all the time that work for you. They're

going to tell you something. And also probably... Speak for yourself. That's why I use my own. I use my own.

Probably though every peak is different. The one that was interesting to me was that if you look at

just like negative year-over-year earnings growth, it basically never works. It works a few times

and it does work. So anyway, this is a really interesting. I think it's just... It's a good reminder

of being humble for a lot of these things. So if you want to take a look at this, I have to do is give

me a look at this. It's a good reminder that you've got to work harder. Find a new... Find your own

indicator. Okay. I think there's a threat about that somewhere for my influencer. How to make

your own indicators. If you want to take a look at this, we'll have we'll have a link in our show

notes. Well, I try to tell my annual spirit sent to you. You get 20% off that first subscription.

Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life and investing. Join Michael Batnik and Ben

Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing and watching. Michael Batnik and Ben

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