Why Reform’s rise isn't a surprise

Coffee House Shots

The Spectator

News, Politics, Government, Daily News

4.4 • 2.1K Ratings

🗓️ 6 May 2025

⏱️ 14 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

It’s day five of recriminations after the local elections, with politicians, pollsters and journalists alike still trying to make sense of what just happened. On today’s podcast, Rachel Wolf gives her verdict: we should not be shocked by Reform’s surge. She argues that Nigel Farage’s success should have been predicted – that it’s the same, distinctly anti-political silent majority who ‘surprised’ us during Brexit, ‘surprised’ us in 2019 and are ‘surprising’ us now.

How will Labour respond? Will they U-turn on winter fuel? And is Boris Johnson the only one who can win back these disillusioned voters for the Tories?

Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Rachel Wolf, CEO of Public First and former adviser to Boris Johnson.

Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Megan McElroy.

Transcript

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0:00.0	The post-mortem has begun on a historic set of local elections, but where does each party go from here?
0:05.0	Is reform unstoppable? Is Kemi the one to lead the Conservative rebuild? Do Labour really get it?
0:10.4	Tomorrow 7th of May join the spectator's panel and special guests, Zia Yusuf and Jacob Rees-Mogg, to unpack these questions, as well as the broader impact of the locals and British politics.
0:19.9	For tickets, go to www.
0:22.0	www.comptator.com.combe.com. Hello and welcome to Coffeehouse Shops, the Spectator's Daily Politics
0:33.5	Podcast. I'm Oscar Edmondson and I'm joined today by James Heel and Rachel Wolfe, former
0:38.9	advisor to Boris Johnson. Now, it's day five of recriminations after the local elections,
0:44.7	as politicians, pollsters and journalists alike try to make sense of what just happened.
0:50.7	But Rachel, you have a very interesting take. Can you tell us why we should not be surprised
0:56.8	why reformed it so well? Yeah, I'm not sure it's interesting. It feels kind of banal to me,
1:01.0	but maybe it's interesting, which is I don't understand why everyone is so surprised, or rather,
1:06.7	the performative surprise that we go through in every single one of these elections feels like it's getting a little old.
1:13.0	We have had a very large group of voters who, for entirely understandable reasons, have been expressing their displeasure with the state of affairs since at least the Brexit referendum in 2016.
1:28.0	And at every single moment, they have voted to change that status of affairs.
1:33.3	The policy environment has not changed.
1:35.7	We have not delivered all the things that we promise in each of those elections.
1:39.0	And they're still really angry and they are still voting for change.
1:42.1	And that seems to me wholly predictable
1:45.3	because none of the things they want have happened. And what are those things? What are the things
1:50.2	that these voters want? Well, I'll come to the kind of economy and stuff in a minute, but I think
1:54.0	there is a little bit of a temptation to say, well, I know these voters say that they care about
1:58.1	immigration. But actually, guys, I promise it's not immigration.
	...

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