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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Why It’s Not the End of the World as We Know It

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Investing, Business News, News, Business

4.11.1K Ratings

🗓️ 28 October 2022

⏱️ 33 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Stocks surged into the weekend, with all three major U.S. equity indexes up more than 2% two hours ahead of Friday’s close. “The market isn't rallying on hopes of a pivot,” tweeted Michael Gayed. “It's rallying on bond-market stabilization.” Michael, the publisher of The Lead-Lag Report, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to elaborate on his contrarian “melt-up” thesis and to talk about sentiment and other technical factors such as breadth and seasonality. “I don’t believe the end of the world is here,” Michael added. “This year, the market has conditioned people to think it will do nothing but go lower.” We also share a preview of “the most important interview in the history of Real Vision,” as Raoul Pal put it, featuring Emad Mostaque and his vision of artificial intelligence of, by, and for the people. Watch the full conversation between Emad Mostaque and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3SGhTSU.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Happy Friday, everyone, and welcome to the real vision daily briefing. I'm Andrea Steno

0:12.4

sending to you live Friday, October 28th. Today, we're going to ask the question,

0:18.4

is this the mild up before the meltdown? But before we get to the answer to that question,

0:24.5

I have a word from our CEO Ruul. Things are tough out there still, even though we have

0:30.0

equities up on the day. And we want to stay true to our mission to help investors. So remember

0:36.0

that we had produced our price of a subscription of the essential tier at real vision to 99 dollars

0:42.0

for the annual subscription. And they subscription to the plus tier is just $400. This discount code

0:48.4

will run until the end of October. But back to the question, is this the mild up before the meltdown?

0:54.4

We've seen positive equity markets again today. And with me to discuss this exact question,

1:00.7

I have Michael Gaiet. Michael, it's it's good to see you.

1:05.2

Always a pleasure, you know that.

1:07.6

Michael, I think it's 10 days back. We talked about this market and the extreme negative sentiment

1:14.8

around equities. What should take on what's going on in equities these days in relation to this

1:21.5

sentiment debate? So I've made that point before that the one thing tops and bottoms having

1:29.5

common is overconfidence by the crowd, right? And while nobody can predict the future, you can

1:37.3

identify the conditions under which something is likely to occur, right? Now October 2nd,

1:43.0

I put out a tweet that basically got a lot of impressions and attention and got a lot of insults

1:49.7

where I said the end of the world is at hand. That's why meltup and stocks is about to take place.

1:54.8

And I said that because the pace at which yields were rising really became in my mind a systemic

2:03.6

event, right? Because you can't have $300 plus trillion of global debt where the cost of

2:10.0

capital is acting as volatile as we had seen. So because that was an end of the world scenario,

2:16.5

it was a very simple calculation in my mind subjectively. They, in quotes, will kick the

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