Why I Was Wrong About Inflation + The Probability of a Recession
Stay Wealthy Retirement Podcast
Taylor Schulte, CFP®
4.7 • 678 Ratings
🗓️ 15 March 2022
⏱️ 14 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today I'm addressing inflation (again), war, and the risk of a recession.
Specifically, I'm sharing:
- An update on the recent inflation report
- Why my previous inflation comments were wrong
- The probability of a recession + what retirement savers should be doing
If like most investors, you're nervous about the current environment and looking for guidance, today's episode is for you.
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For the episode show notes and links, click here.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Stay Walthy podcast. I'm your host, Taylor Schulte, and my goal was to start to move away from current events for a while and get back to the nerdy planning and investing topics that we all love. |
| 0:15.6 | But it only feels appropriate to address what's going on in the world right now. |
| 0:20.3 | So today I'll be sharing, |
| 0:21.9 | one, an update on the recent inflation report. Number two, why my previous inflation |
| 0:27.0 | comments and predictions were wrong. And three, the probability of a recession, plus what |
| 0:33.2 | retirement savers should be doing. So if like most investors, you're nervous about the current |
| 0:38.3 | environment and looking for some guidance, today's episode is for you. For all the links and |
| 0:43.1 | resources mentioned, just head over to you staywealthy.com forward slash 146. |
| 0:52.1 | Prior to invading Ukraine, Russia provided one out of every 10 barrels of oil to the world. |
| 0:57.6 | But that's changed now that the U.S. and other countries have banned oil imports from Russia. |
| 1:03.1 | As a result, the global oil market is facing its biggest disruption since the 1970s. |
| 1:08.7 | You see, the price of oil was already rapidly increasing due to the pent-up |
| 1:12.3 | demand from the pandemic and the related shutdowns. For context, the price of crude oil was around |
| 1:17.8 | $30 in the middle of 2020. Last week, it almost hit 130, an increase of over 300%. Now, I'm not here |
| 1:26.4 | to talk about our dependence on fossil fuels or how to solve |
| 1:29.3 | this energy crisis or whether or not our leaders in Washington are making all the right decisions. |
| 1:33.5 | There's enough of that circling around at the moment and this is not the podcast for that. |
| 1:37.6 | What I want to focus on is what the current situation means for you, for your retirement plan, |
| 1:42.9 | for your investments and what to potentially |
| 1:45.3 | do in response. To start, inflation was already a hot topic after reaching its highest level |
| 1:51.1 | in four decades. But with a war breaking out and a looming energy crisis here, inflation is |
| 1:56.9 | getting worse and the trend is likely going to continue. Some trusted experts suggest that we'll |
... |
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