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The Indicator from Planet Money

Why an aggressive rate cut could backfire on Trump

The Indicator from Planet Money

NPR

Business

4.79.2K Ratings

🗓️ 16 September 2025

⏱️ 10 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The Federal Reserve is expected to make a modest cut to interest rates this week of about a quarter or half a percentage point. President Trump, however, believes they should take a far more aggressive approach: a 3-percentage point cut. 

Today on the show, we examine what a 3-percentage point cut would actually look like, and why that outcome would likely backfire on the president. 

Related episodes: 
It's hard out there for a Fed chair 
Should presidents have more of a say in interest rates? 
Can the Federal Reserve stay independent? 

For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Fact-checking by Sierra Juarez. Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter.  

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Transcript

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0:00.0

NPR.

0:02.0

This is the indicator from planet money. I'm Paddy Hirsch.

0:14.5

And I'm Adrienne Ma.

0:15.4

It's an exciting week for the indicator because we find out tomorrow how much the Federal

0:19.7

Reserve will cut interest rates. And while it looks like there will be a cut, it's not clear just how deep

0:26.9

that cut will be. Now, the smart money, the analysts and Wall Street types, they're predicting

0:33.1

maybe a quarter of a percentage point cut, or maybe a half a percentage point.

0:38.1

Well, who knows, but however deep the Fed goes, it probably won't be deep enough for President

0:42.6

Trump. On his social media platform, Truth Social a couple of months ago, Trump wrote,

0:47.8

Fed should cut rates by three points. Very low inflation, one trillion dollars a year would be saved.

0:54.6

Were there any exclamation points there?

0:57.0

Oh, yes.

0:57.8

Three.

0:58.9

Three exclamation points for, I guess, a requested three percentage point reduction.

1:05.4

Or maybe if you want to be fancy about it, call it 300 basis points.

1:09.6

We're fancy.

1:10.5

And, you know, a cut of that size would

1:13.0

take the Fed funds rate from 4.5% today to just 1.5%. That would be a massive cut. Massive indeed.

1:20.6

So on today's show, we'll look at what might happen if the President got his way and the Fed did

1:25.6

indeed cut rates by three percentage points.

1:27.9

What would that do to inflation?

1:29.8

To mortgage rates, would it save a trillion dollars a year, as Mr. Trump claims?

...

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