When Will the Fed Get the Message?

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Investing, Business News, News, Business

4.1 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 26 October 2022

⏱️ 35 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

More central banks are signaling turns away from tightening as concerns about growth have begun to overwhelm fears of inflation, with the Bank of Canada cutting its policy rate by a smaller-than-expected 50 basis points today. It’s notable that the Canadian dollar rallied against the U.S. dollar. On the fiscal front, Japan has prepared a 67.1 trillion yen stimulus package. Oh, and Google’s and Microsoft’s earnings reports are dragging the Nasdaq Composite toward a 2% loss. When he last visited the Daily Briefing, Darius Dale pointed out that there’s no recession until we see an inversion of the three-month/10-year yield curve – well, it was very small, but that did happen yesterday. So, what now? Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about all that and more. We also hear from Lee Robinson about Jerome Powell’s sensitivity to Paul Volcker’s record on fighting inflation. Watch the full conversation featuring Lee Robinson and Nick Lawson here: https://rvtv.io/3FifJWE. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Good afternoon, everyone. And welcome to the real vision daily briefing. I'm Antley Estino,
0:11.9	sending to you live Wednesday, October 26th, 2022. Before we get to the show, I've worked from
0:20.5	OCEO role. Things are tough out there. So to stay very true to our mission, to help investors,
0:26.6	we have reduced the price of a subscription to the essential tier at real vision to $99
0:32.4	per year. And the subscription to the plus tier is just $400. These offers will run until
0:39.2	the end of October. So make sure that you take good care of that offer. But let's get back to
0:46.4	the show because we're going to ask the question today. When will the Fed get the message?
0:52.0	And with me to discuss that exact question, I have Darius Dale, the founder of 42 macro.
0:58.2	It's very good to see you again, DD. Likewise, it's great to be back, man. How are you?
1:03.2	I'm good. And let's bring up the first meme of the day because it basically relates to this question.
1:09.2	All major central banks, but the Fed have pivoted, changed my mind. I saw someone tweeting
1:15.2	this early. It's a day you concur with this view with areas.
1:21.3	Obviously not. No, this is nothing's changed since what we heard from
1:25.2	Powell in September 14th. It's our estimation that based on some of the evolution of the
1:29.3	data that we've received from then, it's very likely that they may actually be even more hawkish
1:34.4	than investors are anticipating next Wednesday. So we can unpack some of that, some of those dynamics.
1:39.9	If you look at the central bank action today, we got a message from the Canadian central
1:45.0	bank hiking 50 basis points. Instead of the expected 75 basis points, and I think this
1:51.6	meme that I just showed basically relates to that debate on global central banks outside of the US.
1:58.4	If you look at Bank of Canada, if you look at Bank of England, if you look at the
2:01.9	reserve bank of Australia, do you sense some kind of a global pivot coming outside of the US?
2:08.9	Well, so let's just start by saying there's no global coordinated policy effort. We learned that
	...

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