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TED Talks Daily

When is a pandemic over? | Alex Rosenthal

TED Talks Daily

TED

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4.111.9K Ratings

🗓️ 13 August 2020

⏱️ 6 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Consider the following scenario: a highly infectious, sometimes deadly respiratory virus infects humans for the first time. It spreads rapidly worldwide, and the WHO declares a pandemic. The death toll starts to rise and everyone is asking the same question: when will the pandemic end? Alex Rosenthal details the three main strategies governments can use to contain and end a pandemic. [Directed by Visorama, narrated by Jack Cutmore-Scott, music by Bamm Bamm Wolfgang].

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Transcript

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0:00.0

You're listening to TED Talks Daily. I'm Elise Hume. When will the pandemic end? That's a question all of us are asking, especially in the United States, which is struggling with record high infections. Today's episode is a little different. It's an explainer with three different strategies for how pandemics actually wind up fizzling out.

0:24.6

This lesson is from Ted Ed, Ted's Youth and Education Initiative, which my three children really enjoy.

0:31.1

I end up learning a lot from these videos, too.

0:33.6

You can find more lessons at ed. ted.com.

0:39.8

Consider this unfortunately familiar scenario.

0:43.9

Several months ago, a highly infectious, sometimes deadly, respiratory virus

0:48.7

infected humans for the first time.

0:51.7

It then proliferated faster than public health measures could contain it.

0:56.2

Now, the World Health Organization has declared a pandemic, meaning that it's spreading worldwide.

1:02.8

The death toll is starting to rise, and everyone is asking the same question. When will the pandemic end?

1:10.8

The WHO will likely declare the pandemic over once the infection

1:15.0

is mostly contained, and rates of transmission drop significantly throughout the world.

1:21.0

But exactly when that happens depends on what global governments choose to do next. They have

1:26.7

three main options. race through it,

1:29.3

delay and vaccinate, or coordinate and crush.

1:33.3

One is widely considered best, and it may not be the one you think.

1:38.3

In the first, governments and communities do nothing to halt the spread

1:42.3

and instead allow people to be exposed as

1:45.5

quickly as possible. Without time to study the virus, doctors know little about how to save their

1:50.7

patients and hospitals reach peak capacity almost immediately. Somewhere in the range of millions to

1:57.3

hundreds of millions of people die, either from the virus or the collapse of healthcare systems.

2:03.9

Soon, the majority of people have been infected and either perished or survived by building up their

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