We have so much to go through today. I don't even want to take a second introducing anything. Let's just get right into it

We're going to talk about very quickly worst-case scenarios. We're facing three of them right now and I just want to walk you through the way I'm

thinking about what's going on and what these worst-case scenarios are because it's

very rare to be in a place in the market where you're

contending with three things of this magnitude and they're all somewhat

interrelated. So the first thing I want to talk about is the fact that we're basically going into the end of the year with no follow on stimulus package.

And I've talked about this before going back to July talking about how that original package was

sunsetting and how helpful it had been to the economy and we didn't end up

replacing it so there's not going to be anything that gets done.

Donald Trump made it clear that there's not going to be anything that gets done.

Donald Trump made it clear that stimulus will have to wait until after the election when he wins,

L-O-L-O-L and basically now the situation is that regardless of who wins you're probably going to have to wait.

Look if Trump wins maybe he tries to do something before the end of the year and he pushes

Mitch McConnell around a little bit to go for a bigger

package which is what the Democrats want. McConnell was like thinking

$500 billion which I know it still sounds like a lot of money, and it is, but if the Dems are at over 2 trillion,

we're nowhere near where we need to be. So maybe he pushes to do something if he wins. It's more likely he doesn't win, but that there is going to be this tremendous court battle over the result of the election and even if Biden ends up winning that battle it's

not until February that a second stimulus happens because Trump's not going to do

anything as a as a lame duck and you got to get through the

inauguration and everything that leads up to that. So if we're not doing a second

stimulus package until at least February and we're seeing this environment that we're in now where the

pace of job growth is already slowing, the recovery is already stumbling, it's going to

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