There may be an element of dumb luck involved in just about every triumph. But when you consider those

achievements that are only possible for somebody willing to make a major bet on an uncertain outcome, you realize

effective risk-taking is a life skill. From KERA in Dallas, this is think. I'm Chris Boyd. That skill is

essential for people who compete in all kinds of arenas, in sports at casinos, in business and

investment, and of course in politics.

My guest, who has spent his career developing novel ways to analyze the odds of all kinds of

risks, is convinced that some people may be naturally inclined to be good at risk-taking,

but he's identified qualities we can all cultivate in order to increase our chances for successful outcomes.

Nate Silver is a statistician, writer, and founder of the political blog 538.com.

He writes the substack Silver Bulletin, and his new book is called On the Edge, The Art of Risking Everything.

Nate, welcome to think.

Thank you so much, Chris. You divide the world broadly

into those most comfortable on the river and those who prefer to inhabit the village. The ones in

the river are the risk takers? Yeah, they're people who take calculated risks for a living.

So obviously, poker is one home, home spot in the

river, but also things like Silicon Valley, Wall Street, et cetera. They tend to be extremely competitive,

sometimes at the point of contrarianism or being difficult people at times, but they're also

highly analytical and mathematically inclined. If we just look at Las Vegas, far more people, I think, end up losing than winning overall,

but there are people who over time, of course, rack up much bigger wins than losses.

When you note that effective risk takers are focused on the process rather than the result,

what does that mean?

Look, if you watch sporting events, if you watch a Cowboys game or something and you see a field goal doink off the crossbar,

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