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Short Wave

What Scientists Got Wrong About COVID-19

Short Wave

NPR

Daily News, Nature, Life Sciences, Astronomy, Science, News

4.7 β€’ 6K Ratings

πŸ—“οΈ 24 March 2025

⏱️ 13 minutes

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Summary

Early in the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists predicted the SARS-CoV-2 virus would mutate slowly. They were wrong. Hundreds of thousands of viral mutations and multiple seasonal waves later, we now know why. The answer changes researchers' understanding of viral evolution β€” and it could help predict the evolution of other viruses in the future. Emily talks about it all with Sarah Zhang, a health writer for The Atlantic.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

This message comes from Wondery. Kiki Palmer is that girl, and she's diving into the brains of

0:06.0

entertainment's best and brightest to have real conversations on her podcast. Baby, this is Kiki

0:12.2

Palmer.

0:13.6

You're listening to Shortwave from NPR.

0:18.7

Hey, shortwaver, Emily Kwong here.

0:27.9

So this month marks five years since officials at the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic.

0:30.5

And we have come a long way since then.

0:36.8

Researchers have figured out ways to slow the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus with masking and air filtering.

0:42.9

They've developed safe treatments and vaccines, and they've tracked hundreds of thousands of different mutations.

0:44.4

And now we know something else, how those mutations evolved.

0:48.0

Because if you remember, in March of 2020, a lot of scientists predicted that the coronavirus

0:52.8

was not going to evolve very much.

0:55.7

It was thought that the coronavirus mutated pretty slowly, like half as fast as the flu,

1:00.5

or only as quarter as fast as HIV.

1:02.9

This is Sarah Zang, a health writer for the Atlantic.

1:05.7

Back in 2020, some scientists thought that once vaccines arrived, they would offer years of protection.

1:11.6

Unfortunately, I think we know what actually happened, which is that in the winter of 2020,

1:17.3

we sort of got like this first big variant, what it was known as Alpha.

1:21.1

And then we just kept getting more and more variants.

1:24.1

Beta, Delta, Omicron, the coronavirus continued to mutate to make these evolutionary jumps that helped it survive.

1:33.8

And for a long time, scientists didn't know why.

1:36.9

Sarah wrote a piece about this for the Atlantic last month, focusing on a series of studies that point to a relatively new idea that the virus could be incubating and mutating further in one specific group of people.

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