meta_pixel
Tapesearch Logo
Log in
Goldman Sachs Exchanges

What's Next For Emerging Markets?

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.41K Ratings

🗓️ 11 April 2019

⏱️ 19 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Emerging market economies are showing early signs of stabilization, according to Kevin Daly of Goldman Sachs Research, and a number of the factors that contributed to the weakness of EM economies last year have now been reversed. "There has already been the beginnings of a recovery from the lows pasted in September-October last year," he says. Also in the episode, Daly discusses the outlook for his core focus area, CEEMEA – Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa – and explains the impact of Turkey's economic turmoil. "We expect the recovery in Turkey to be very slow…but nevertheless, we do seem to be past the worst point of Turkish growth" he says. He argues that the long-term growth outlook for the region is positive. This podcast was recorded on March 6, 2019. All price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2019 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

This is Exchanges at Goldman Sachs where we discuss developments currently shaping markets, industries in the global economy.

0:14.0

I'm Jake Seeward, Global Head of Corporate Communications here at the firm.

0:17.0

Today we're in the London Office of Goldman Sachs and we're joined by Kevin Daly, who is the co-head of Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa, or

0:25.4

Samia, I'm going to call it, economics within global macro research.

0:29.9

And that's our focus today, Samia, from what's been driving the weakness in these

0:33.4

emerging markets, when conditions are likely to bottom out, and what's next for

0:37.6

growth in inflation. Kevin, welcome to the program. Thank you very much. So Kevin,

0:41.6

we'll get to the Simeia region specifically a bit later on, but let's just start

0:45.4

with the big picture on emerging markets.

0:48.0

Last year, 2018 was a pretty tough year for emerging market economies and for the markets

0:52.0

as well. Why do you think that was the case?

0:55.0

For us there is four factors that drove the slowdown in EM economies last year. The first was

1:01.8

the slowdown in growth in developed economies.

1:04.1

That matters crucially for external demand for E.M.

1:06.9

So E.S. export a lot of goods and services to develop economies.

1:10.7

So in developed economies, slow, that has a negative impact on

1:14.0

EM, and that certainly happened last year.

1:16.5

The second is that there was a big tightening in global and EM financial conditions, driven by a reappraisal of U.S. rate prospects. So when people expect

1:26.8

higher U.S. rates and higher developed economy rates in general, that tends to set the funding

1:31.5

availability for E. for EM economy.

1:33.6

So that tightening in US conditions in particular had an important

1:38.1

negative drag through the course of 2018 on EM economies. The third factor is oil prices. You saw a big rise in oil prices

...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Goldman Sachs, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of Goldman Sachs and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.

Copyright © Tapesearch 2025.