4.4 • 1K Ratings
🗓️ 11 April 2019
⏱️ 19 minutes
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0:00.0 | This is Exchanges at Goldman Sachs where we discuss developments currently shaping markets, industries in the global economy. |
0:14.0 | I'm Jake Seeward, Global Head of Corporate Communications here at the firm. |
0:17.0 | Today we're in the London Office of Goldman Sachs and we're joined by Kevin Daly, who is the co-head of Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa, or |
0:25.4 | Samia, I'm going to call it, economics within global macro research. |
0:29.9 | And that's our focus today, Samia, from what's been driving the weakness in these |
0:33.4 | emerging markets, when conditions are likely to bottom out, and what's next for |
0:37.6 | growth in inflation. Kevin, welcome to the program. Thank you very much. So Kevin, |
0:41.6 | we'll get to the Simeia region specifically a bit later on, but let's just start |
0:45.4 | with the big picture on emerging markets. |
0:48.0 | Last year, 2018 was a pretty tough year for emerging market economies and for the markets |
0:52.0 | as well. Why do you think that was the case? |
0:55.0 | For us there is four factors that drove the slowdown in EM economies last year. The first was |
1:01.8 | the slowdown in growth in developed economies. |
1:04.1 | That matters crucially for external demand for E.M. |
1:06.9 | So E.S. export a lot of goods and services to develop economies. |
1:10.7 | So in developed economies, slow, that has a negative impact on |
1:14.0 | EM, and that certainly happened last year. |
1:16.5 | The second is that there was a big tightening in global and EM financial conditions, driven by a reappraisal of U.S. rate prospects. So when people expect |
1:26.8 | higher U.S. rates and higher developed economy rates in general, that tends to set the funding |
1:31.5 | availability for E. for EM economy. |
1:33.6 | So that tightening in US conditions in particular had an important |
1:38.1 | negative drag through the course of 2018 on EM economies. The third factor is oil prices. You saw a big rise in oil prices |
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