What’s Driving the Price of Oil? A Supply-Side Story | Rory Johnston

Hidden Forces

Demetri Kofinas

Government, Business

4.8 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 21 July 2022

⏱️ 47 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In Episode 260 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Rory Johnston. Rory is a widely quoted researcher and expert in global commodities markets. His work includes a variety of research and investment projects including his commodity market research platform at Commodity Context Dot Com, as well as both public market portfolio and private equity strategy at Price Street.

This episode is for premium subscribers only and is part of an ongoing series of conversations that I’ve been curating with guests focused on investment themes and opportunities in the commodities complex. The goal of this conversation is to provide you with a more critical look at the supply side story in oil, refined products like gasoline and diesel, and to a lesser degree natural gas, including drivers of end-use demand for these commodities. The demand-side picture is much more difficult to project, as it requires assumptions about growth, monetary policy, and the further implementation of sanctions on Russian energy supplies. These are subjects we explored in recent episodes with Helen Thompson on Energy Geopolitics and Ian Bremmer on how to fight a geopolitical recession and are featured in the related tab on this week’s episode page on our website.

Rory and Demetri also discuss some of the financial data compiled by Rory in his most recent Global Oil Data Deck including calendar spreads and speculative positioning in major crude contracts and how we can use that information to help us anticipate the direction of and volatility in oil prices going forward. For premium subscribers to our super nerd tier, Rory has provided you with an abridged version of his data deck for the month of July which publishes in full on his commodity context substack today.

You can access the full episode and transcript, along with the abridged version of Rory’s Global Oil Data Deck by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

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Episode Recorded on 07/14/2022

Transcript

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0:00.0	What's up everybody? My name is Demetra Grafinas and you're listening to Hidden Forces,
0:06.0	a podcast that inspires investors, entrepreneurs and everyday citizens to challenge consensus narratives
0:13.6	and to learn how to think critically about the systems of power shaping our world.
0:18.0	My guest in this week's episode, which was originally made available to premium subscribers only, is Rory Johnson.
0:25.0	Rory is a widely quoted researcher and expert in global commodities markets.
0:30.0	His work includes a variety of research and investment projects including his commodity market research platform
0:36.0	at commoditycontext.com, as well as both public market portfolio and private equity strategy at Price Street.
0:44.0	This episode is part of an ongoing series of conversations that I've been recording with guests focused on investment themes
0:51.0	and opportunities in the commodities complex.
0:54.0	The goal of this conversation is to provide you with a more critical look at the supply side story and oil.
1:00.0	Refine products like gasoline and diesel and to a lesser degree natural gas, including drivers of end-use demand for these commodities.
1:09.0	The demand side picture is much more difficult to project as it requires assumptions about growth, monetary policy,
1:15.0	and the further implementation of sanctions on Russian energy supplies.
1:19.0	Things that we explored most recently in my episodes with Helen Thompson on energy geopolitics,
1:25.0	Hany and Bremer on how to fight a geopolitical recession, both of which are featured in the related tab on this week's episode page on our website.
1:34.0	Rory and I also discuss some of the financial data that he has compiled in his most recent oil markets data deck,
1:40.0	including calendar spreads and speculative positioning in major crude contracts.
1:45.0	And how we can use that information to help us anticipate the direction of and volatility in oil prices going forward.
1:53.0	For premium subscribers to our super nerd tier, Rory has provided you with an abridged version of his data deck for the month of July,
2:00.0	which publishes in full on his commodity context substack today.
2:05.0	As most of you already know, hidden forces is listener supported.
2:09.0	I don't rely on advertisers or commercial sponsors.
	...

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