Global growth slowed sharply in 2022, weighed down by surging inflation, interest rates, and

geopolitical turmoil.

So what's the store for economies and markets in 2023?

We feel pretty good about the idea that a soft landing is possible doesn't mean it's

assured we do assign a 35% probability to a recession that's not a low number but we

feel good about the idea that the baseline is no recession.

I'm Allison Nathan and this outlook for the year ahead.

To do that I'm joined now by Jan Hatzius head of

Goldman Sachs research and the firm's chief economist and Dominic Wilson

senior advisor in the Global Markets Research Group.

Jan, Dominic, welcome back to the program. Thank you.

Great to be with you.

Yahn, you believe the U.S. will avoid a recession this year and that's actually an out of consensus

view most forecasters are expecting recession.

So what's driving that relative optimism?

Just specifically on growth, I think two things. One, we had a large decline in real

disposable income in the first half of

2022 because of fiscal normalization and the surge in inflation,

especially after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

But that is now really behind us.

If we look at real disposable household income,

it started to grow at pretty good rates,

...