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Planet Money

What happens when governments cook the books

Planet Money

NPR

Business, News

4.6 β€’ 29.8K Ratings

πŸ—“οΈ 9 August 2025

⏱️ 35 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

After President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, economists and statisticians across the board were horrified. Because the firing raises the spectre of potential manipulation – and it raises the worry that, in the future, the numbers won't be as trustworthy.

So: we looked at two countries that have some experience with data manipulation. To ask what happens when governments get tempted to cook the books. And...once they cook the books... how hard is it to UN-cook them?

It's two statistical historical cautionary tales. First, we learn how Argentina tried to mask its true inflation rate, and how that effort backfired. Then, we hear about the difficult process of cleaning up the post-cooked-book mess, in Greece.

For more:
- Can we just change how we measure GDP?
- The price of lettuce in Brooklyn
- What really goes on at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Update)
- Can we still trust the monthly jobs report? (Update)
- How office politics could take down Europe
- The amazing shrinking economy might stop shrinking

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Transcript

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0:00.0

This is Planet Money from NPR.

0:05.8

Amy O'Hara is a data person.

0:09.3

Trained as an economist, worked at the U.S. Census Bureau, now works at something called the

0:13.9

Massive Data Institute at Georgetown, and that's where she was last Friday, getting ready

0:19.9

to go out of town to Nashville for a big

0:22.5

statistics conference. It would have been a pretty chill Friday before travel. You know what I mean?

0:29.2

But it wasn't. It wasn't because in the middle of the day, Amy comes out of her office to meet

0:34.2

one of her colleagues. He's coming to pick up some stickers that they're planning to bring to that conference, stickers, all about how important good data is. But when

0:42.7

Amy comes out of the office, she realizes that her colleague does not look happy. He's like,

0:48.2

have you heard? Wow, did you hear about BLS? I said, no, what about BLS? BLS, the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As you may have

0:57.4

heard, they released their monthly jobs report last Friday, and it was a bad one. The economy is

1:02.8

adding fewer jobs than people expected. And the BLS also released their revisions to the previous

1:09.3

two months of jobs data. And those two months

1:12.1

were worse than we had thought. Revisions always happen, and these revisions were big,

1:18.0

but within a normal range. Basically, the report said that the labor market is not doing so great.

1:24.6

President Donald Trump, upon getting this bad news, fired the head of the Bureau of Labor

1:29.3

Statistics, a career statistician named Erica McIntyrefer. Amy and her colleague both know Erica,

1:36.2

and they're both shocked. Just literally standing there in silence for, I don't know, 20 or 30 seconds,

1:42.3

letting it sink in, because something had dramatically shifted don't know, 20 or 30 seconds, letting it sink in because something had dramatically shifted.

1:48.0

You know, it was that the norms that statistical information could be produced without political

1:54.4

interference, those norms were shattered.

1:57.1

The BLS is responsible for all kinds of important government statistics, the

...

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