What Everyone Missed About Circle's Explosive IPO

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Investing, Business

4.8 • 786 Ratings

🗓️ 15 June 2025

⏱️ 10 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Circle's IPO wasn't just successful—it was a rocket ship, surging from its initial price of $31 to over $100 per share in just days. But why did analysts and markets underestimate Circle so dramatically? In this episode of The Breakdown, NLW explores the real story behind Circle's IPO frenzy. He examines why markets are betting big on stablecoins as essential financial infrastructure, breaks down the evolving regulatory landscape, and highlights how Circle's meticulous, years-in-the-making strategy positioned them perfectly for this moment. Brought to you by: Grayscale offers more than 20 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. To learn more, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Grayscale.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ -- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.grayscale.com//?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-thebreakdown)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheBreakdownBW Subscribe to the newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thebreakdown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownBW

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.
0:09.3	It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.
0:18.4	What's going on, guys? It is Sunday, June 15th, and that means it's time for Long Read Sunday.
0:23.8	Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying The Breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord.
0:32.4	You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.ly slash breakdown pod.
0:36.2	All right, friends, today we are discussing what everyone got
0:40.6	wrong about Circle. Circle has, of course, been an absolute bonanza since it IPO last week.
0:46.7	It IPOed at a price of 31, which was already a big markup of where it was going out, and it's
0:51.2	currently sitting now at like $109 a share, even after the whole geopolitical
0:55.9	upheaval of Friday's events with Israel and Iran. I've spent a bunch of time thinking about and
1:00.6	talking about this recently with people, and I want to share some of that because I think
1:04.3	it's instructive of where we are, both in terms of the market and in terms of crypto. But to anchor
1:08.7	this, we're going to read an essay by Andy Baer,
1:11.1	who leads research and product development of digital asset indices at CoinDesk.
1:15.1	His piece is called Circle goes full circle, and he's going to get a little bit into
1:18.8	circle-specific model. Andy writes, by sheer luck, I had an opening bell media hit with NYSE TV
1:25.0	this last Thursday, the day Circle listed as CRCL. The NYSE
1:29.0	studio is upstairs at gallery level. I'd first visited the NYSC on the same gallery balcony as a boy
1:33.9	with my dad. I remember getting the impression that IBM was a huge company that represented the future.
1:38.8	Circle staff and guests filed in at 915, a much larger delegation than most bell ringings.
1:43.6	Not only was the floor packed, but both galleries were full, as the applause started precisely at 915, a much larger delegation than most bell ringings. Not only was the floor
1:44.5	packed, but both galleries were full. As the applause started, precisely at 929 to 930, everything
	...

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