Hello fellow Robocapitals hope you're well so the Treasury market the 10 year yield is crashing as we speak and I think this is signaling the Fed's next move is not only going to be down but it may happen a lot sooner

than you think possibly today in a couple hours.

Let's go through what's happening with the 10-year Treasury yield. today in a couple hours.

Let's go through what's happening with the 10-year Treasury

yield and go over to the data, which would suggest

there's a much higher probability.

The Fed cuts today than the market is attaching.

Now I want to be very clear, the market's probably attaching a 1% chance, something like that.

I am not saying that there's a high probability

the Fed is going to cut today.

I would give it maybe 10%.

But I'm saying I think the market's off sides here if they're predicting zero or 1%.

But let's get over to why I'm making this statement based on the action that we're seeing right now, especially with the 10-year Treasury

yield right now as we speak. Let's go over to do a screen share. Let's go over to a chart from see and be see exactly what I'm referring to that is the two year we'll get to that a moment here's the 10 year it just maybe

5 10 minutes ago. It dipped under 4.1. Now I haven't done videos

in like last week because as you guys know we can see the paint on my hands.

We've been moving into this new office. In fact I was still painting all

morning the conference room. So if you guys haven't stayed up to date probably the last time that we did a video

the 10-year Treasury yield was trading what 4.25 something like that in fact let's just go back here. Five days ago, yeah, five days ago, it was at 4.26. Today, under 4.1. So it's gone down by 17 basis points in the last five days. I mean this is a

huge move in the 10-year Treasury. Let's look at what the two-year Treasury is doing.

The two-year is now, let's go back five days, it was right around 4.43, now 4.35.

So what's really interesting is we had this bull steepener happening.

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