I welcome you to the beat with Ari Melber. I'll tell you what we're up to tonight.

We have some new reporting from a big Supreme Court case today where Ron DeSantis may get a big loss.

It's an important one. We're going to get to that. We also have by the end of the hour.

J.B. Smo, from Curb Your Enthusiasm, is here.

But right now, the top story in politics coming out of the weekend is the hard evidence that Trump has a problem going towards November.

Several states into this Republican primary,

we can see a large number of Republicans who are turning out

as an actual fact on an ongoing basis in this election year many of those Republicans

don't want Trump. Here's how Governor Haley put it on Saturday night.

He as a Republican incumbent didn't get 40% of the vote of the primary.

He's not going to get the 40% if he is not willing to change and do something that

acknowledges the 40%. And why should the 40% have to cave to him?

40% is not some tiny group.

As you can see, Haley, in more than one stop hitting this 40% point.

And we're going to broaden this out for you right now.

When you look at those key states that we just had, South Carolina most recently, New Hampshire

before that, 400,000 plus Republicans looked for something other than Trump.

And the Haley voters in her home state here are telling

pollsters they will not vote for Trump if he's the nominee. These are

active Republican primary voters. There's also the larger group of

voters that Trump alienates who may stay home or leave the party altogether.

So it's a measurable problem for Trump. It's math.

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