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The Breakdown

Violent Reflexivity: Why Market Movements Are More Aggressive Than Ever, Feat. Corey Hoffstein

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Investing, Business

4.8786 Ratings

🗓️ 24 September 2020

⏱️ 69 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Corey Hoffstein is the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Newfound Research LLC, a quantitative research and investment fund. He is also the host of the “Flirting with Models” podcast.  His most recent research is “Liquidity Cascades: The Coordinated Risk of Uncoordinated Market Participants.”  In it, he examines three popular narratives about what is driving radical swings in markets, including: The increased role of the Fed The rise of passive and index investing The growth of volatility-correlated strategies  He finds that, individually, none could explain the radical market shifts we’ve seen. However, when combined, they create a market incentive loop that is causing markets to move and react to exogenous shocks more quickly and aggressively than ever before.  Find our guest online: Twitter: @choffstein  Website: Newfound Research

Transcript

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0:00.0

I heard for a very long time over the last decade, oh, risk parity is causing these issues,

0:05.6

or, oh, it's the trend followers.

0:07.7

And again, in isolation, I don't think any of them are the problem.

0:11.5

But when you look at this big, massive category together and consider the hundreds of billions

0:16.5

of dollars that are in there that are suddenly all having to trade at the same time because they're

0:21.6

all taking some sort of volatility contingent trade. All of them are ultimately demanding

0:26.3

liquidity when there is none, causing severe pressures on the market, amplifying volatility

0:32.4

and very often in a way that is directional. So when markets sell off, most of these strategies

0:37.3

are also trying

0:38.2

to sell at the same time, pushing markets further, faster. Welcome back to The Breakdown with

0:45.3

me, NLW. It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our

0:51.9

world. The breakdown is sponsored by Crypto.com, bitstamp, and nexo.io, and produced and distributed by CoinDes.

1:01.3

What's going on, guys? It is Wednesday, September 23rd, and I am so excited to share this conversation today with Corey Hofstein.

1:10.6

Corey is the co-founder and chief investment officer

1:14.0

of Newfound Research, which is a quantitative investment in research firm. Corrie and Newfound

1:20.8

just put out a new paper a couple weeks ago called liquidity cascades, the coordinated risk of uncoordinated market participants.

1:30.6

And where it really comes from is a desire to understand that feeling that so many people

1:38.1

have that something in the markets is off. The interesting thing that Corey does in this paper is dig into three

1:47.7

different narratives, the narrative of Fed intervention, the narrative around the growth of passive

1:53.7

and index investing, and the convex nature of hedging, i.e. the liquidity mismatch between

2:00.3

market makers and other market participants, i.e. the liquidity mismatch between market makers and other market

2:02.4

participants, particularly around volatility correlated products. What Corey finds is that these

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