Viktor Shvets on Why We Might Be Heading for a Deflationary Bust
Odd Lots
Bloomberg
4.5 • 2K Ratings
🗓️ 28 March 2022
⏱️ 58 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
In times of uncertainty, people often reach for historical analogies. In recent weeks and months, as inflation has continued to climb and commodity prices spike, there's been a lot of talk of a return to the 1970s. But is that the right parallel? On this episode of Odd Lots, Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal speak to Macquarie Capital Strategist Viktor Shvets about why we should instead be looking at a different historical era. He argues that central banks are at risk of raising rates too quickly and flipping the world into recession.
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| 0:50.0 | Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odlots Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. |
| 0:54.4 | And I'm Joe Wyzenthal. Joe, it feels like there's a lot of uncertainty at the moment. |
| 0:59.7 | You think? Why? What's uncertain? Kind of everything at the moment. So obviously you have what's going |
| 1:06.8 | on with geopolitics and rushes invasion of Ukraine. And that's obviously a big thing for markets. |
| 1:13.0 | But even without that, you were sort of at this inflection point where central banks were just |
| 1:19.6 | beginning to respond to inflation risks. And there's this question of how much of an impact |
| 1:25.6 | that's actually going to have on risk asset. Yeah, that's exactly right. And I think it's kind of |
| 1:30.4 | been a confusing couple of weeks in terms of understanding both the plan from central banks. |
| 1:36.8 | And of course, primarily we're talking about the Fed and the market response to them because we |
| 1:41.1 | did have the start of a rate hiking cycle. 25 basis point. Many more hikes expected. |
| 1:48.1 | We've, you know, the immediate market reaction was this rally. And so there's questions about |
| 1:53.8 | which was not necessarily expected. And the question is, well, is this the market doesn't think the Fed |
| 1:58.4 | is going to go that hard? Does it think the Fed isn't going to need to go that hard? Or is the market |
| 2:04.0 | going to be surprised that the Fed really is going to do what it says? And maybe we're going to get |
... |
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