UNCHAINED: How Crypto Prediction Market Polymarket Signaled Early That Biden Might Drop Out
CoinDesk Podcast Network
CoinDesk
4.8 • 689 Ratings
🗓️ 5 July 2024
⏱️ 39 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Are prediction markets the key to finding the truth in an era of media narratives and social media algorithms?
Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pods, Fountain, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Castbox, Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform.
Prediction markets are gaining mainstream traction, particularly with the upcoming US elections. In this episode, Nick Tomaino, founder of 1confirmation, which is an investor in Polymarket, explores how platforms like Polymarket identified the possibility that President Biden might drop out of the campaign before the mainstream media did. He talks about the journey of Polymarket, the challenges it faced, and how it overcame them to provide a credible platform for betting on political outcomes.
Finally, Nick explains why prediction markets are currently illegal in the U.S., the implications of the Supreme Court striking down Chevron's deference, and what the future holds for prediction markets in the U.S.
Show highlights:
- Why prediction markets like Polymarket finally gained mainstream traction, and how 1confirmation became an early investor
- What challenges Polymarket faced in its journey to mainstream recognition, and how it managed to overcome them
- How prediction markets contribute to bringing more truth to the world, particularly in the context of media narratives and social media algorithms
- What challenges have arisen from conflicts in resolving prediction markets on Polymarket
- How bets are created and how the wording and resolution of prediction markets is managed on Polymarket
- How trading volumes affect the credibility of prediction markets on Polymarket
- The regulatory environment of prediction markets in the US and whether the elimination of Chevron deference by the Supreme Court will have a positive impact on these markets
Visit our website for breaking news, analysis, pop op-eds, articles to learn about crypto, and much more: unchainedcrypto.com
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Guest
- Nick Tomaino, Founder & General Partner at 1confirmation
Links |
Recent news on Polymarket:
- Unchained: Polymarket Hits Record Highs in Monthly Users and Trading Volume Due to Presidential Election
- Crypto.news: Polymarket reverses Oracle decision on Barron Trump's involvement in DJT meme coin
- Decrypt: Ethereum ETFs Approved by the SEC? Yes—But Don't Bet On It - Decrypt
- Dune dashboard: Prediction Markets
Commentary:
- Vitalik’s tweet: “Prediction markets and Community Notes are becoming the two flagship social epistemic technologies of the 2020s. Both truth-seeking and democratic, built around open public participation rather than pre-selected elites. I want to see many more things like this.”
- Nick Tomaino’s tweet: “2024 will go down in history as the year prediction markets went mainstream.”
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Unchained Podcast is Produced by Laura Shin Media, LLC. Distributed by CoinDesk. Senior Producer is Michele Musso and Executive Producer is Jared Schwartz.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Thanks for listening to Unchained, your no-hype resource for all things crypto on the CoinDesk |
| 0:05.2 | Podcast Network. You can also listen to the episodes on the Unchained feed earlier if you subscribe |
| 0:10.8 | there. Plus, check out all our content on our website, Unchained Crypto.com. |
| 0:16.8 | The belief in prediction markets isn't that markets are perfectly rational and always get it right, |
| 0:22.1 | but that, again, when a wide variety of people have skin in the game and, you know, |
| 0:27.7 | bet on, you know, what they believe to be true, that ends up that the price in aggregate |
| 0:34.0 | ends up more truthful than just what, you know, a few pre-selected elites say. |
| 0:42.6 | Hi, everyone. Welcome to Unchained. You're a no-hay resource for all things crypto. I'm your host, |
| 0:47.3 | Laura Shin, author of The Cryptopians. I started covering crypto nine years ago, and as a senior |
| 0:52.5 | editor at Forbes was the first mainstream media reporter to cover cryptocurrency full-time. |
| 0:56.6 | This is the July 5th, 2024 episode of Unchained. |
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| 1:37.9 | Today's guest is Nick Tomeino, founder and general partner at One Confirmation. Welcome, Nick. |
| 1:43.4 | How's it going, Laura? Good to see you. |
| 1:45.9 | Nice to see you. Prediction Market, Polymarket, has had a record June, attracting nearly 30,000 |
... |
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