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On The Tape

Twisted Thoughts That Spin 'Round the Fed’s Head

On The Tape

RiskReversal Media

News, Business, Investing, Business News

4.6757 Ratings

🗓️ 7 July 2022

⏱️ 71 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Dan and Danny discuss the Fed minutes (0:01:39), similarities to the financial crisis (0:08:40), mega-cap tech stocks (0:11:27), bank earnings on tap (0:16:45), why gold can’t rally (0:21:27), and what could send the S&P 500 back through the lows (0:27:19) . Later, Guy and Danny turn the table on Dan and interview him about his career, how he got started at CNBC, his avid music fandom, and his illustrious lacrosse career.  For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, please check out the episode page here. ---- See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape.  ---- Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod. Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to On the Tape. I'm Dan Nathan. I'm here with Danny Moses. Guy Adami is off for the week. Danny, how are you? I'm good, buddy. I'm jealous of the trip, which you are about to take. Very jealous. I am about it. It's like, do-do-do-do-do-do. I'm going to London. This is why we are recording this Wednesday into the close. Like I said, Guy is not here.

0:21.2

Danny and I are covering all of the action this week on On the Tape and actually stick around because after we cover this week's volatility, which we've had a lot of and a lot of different risk assets.

0:30.5

We are going to continue our series, Better Know and On the Tape podcast hosts where Danny and Guy interview me. That'll be fun. That was fun,

0:38.9

actually. We did that last week. So check that out. All right, Danny, let's do it. It's Wednesday afternoon.

0:43.6

We got about 45 minutes left in the trading day. It's already been a very volatile week. We've only had two

0:48.3

trading days, but we had the Fed minutes that just came out from their last meeting. What was that from mid-June or so? We have another

0:55.2

Fed meeting coming in July. The CME Fed Funds futures tracker is basically saying very strong

1:01.6

likelihood of another 75 basis point. Increase. What did you take away from the Fed minutes?

1:06.2

And let's talk about some of the reactions that we're seeing across risk markets. Yeah. So the minutes,

1:10.7

basically, they said we need to talk a big game because we need to get

1:14.2

inflation down, the expectations for inflation down. And they basically said in the minutes that

1:19.1

over the next few weeks, which is now, we're going to keep talking a big game because we want

1:23.0

to convince the markets that we're going to do whatever it takes. But if you read what they actually said in there,

1:28.1

I mean, they basically, that's exactly what they said. And so you're seeing a reaction, the first reaction

1:32.6

the market was down. I'm not sure why. The Fed Minutes did nothing but tell us what we already know,

1:37.2

which is the Fed is talking a bigger game than I think they will actually follow through with.

1:40.7

And so we'll see. We're having a lot of moves here, obviously. Treasury markets are very

1:44.5

volatile. Oil is very volatile. Let's talk about treasuries because I think it's truly astounding. If Guy was here

1:49.6

right now, I think you'd be jumping out the window with what we've seen just today in the two-year

1:54.2

treasury yield. It traded as low as 2.76. It's trading right now about 2.96%. That is an extraordinary percentage move, especially

2:03.5

an intraday range for a 2. Whatever yield, right, on a two-year note, what did the Fed

2:09.7

Minutes say that caused that spike that we've seen over the last hour, hour and a half?

...

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