TTU86: Predictions on Crude Oil, Copper, War, Plus More on Cycles ft. David Gurwitz of Charles Nenner Research – 2of2
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 15 July 2015
⏱️ 65 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
In this second part of our conversation, we dive into the specifics of how Charles Nenner and his team make their predictions, and what they predict in certain markets like Crude Oil, Copper, and Natural Gas. We also discuss the cycle of a major war at the beginning of each century, and David’s personal story of why he is just as curious today as the day he started.
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In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
- How they predict the price, and how the price and cycles work together.
- The fifth category they predict on is economic indicators.
- What is happening when a market is not behaving as the cycle they show indicates.
- What are some of the indicators of a big event like 9/11.
- Where he thinks Natural Gas is going.
- What he thinks about Copper.
- The battle between inflation and deflation and where he stands on those terms.
- About the 100 year war cycle and what he predicts for the next war.
- The cycles of infectious disease.
- Why they don’t have a fund that trades off of their predictions.
- The different types of clients they have.
- Why he does the job that he does.
- Why it is important to listen well.
- Why he thinks that thinking and listening are a lost art.
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Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:
- Read the article David mentions in this episode featuring his work in Oil & Gas Investor.
- David recommends reading Chaos by James Gleick.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Every once in a while at 355 or 402, Charles would call me and go, |
| 0:07.0 | you see it went right to the level. |
| 0:09.0 | That means he's still a kid. |
| 0:10.0 | To me, I appreciate that Charles, more than anything else, has shown me a different way to see the world from my own professional training. |
| 0:19.0 | So this is a very different way of looking at things. |
| 0:22.6 | And that in itself requires someone to be intellectually curious |
| 0:27.1 | and let us have our say and be heard beyond the money. |
| 0:32.1 | This is David Gerwitz, managing director of the Charles Nena Research Center. |
| 0:37.3 | And you're listening to Top |
| 0:38.5 | Traders Unplugged. |
| 0:40.1 | Welcome back to Top Traders Unplugged, where the best traders in the world come to share |
| 0:44.4 | their experiences, their successes, and their failures. |
| 0:47.8 | Let's rejoin the conversation with your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Nealz Kastrup Larson. |
| 1:08.0 | Thank you. veteran hedge fund manager, Niels Kastrup Larson. In that very difficult process, having lived through a pretty good run. |
| 1:12.6 | Of course, I'm not going to let you off that lightly, but before we go there, I want to understand something. |
| 1:14.3 | And then I think we've covered all the basics. |
| 1:16.2 | We talked about cycles, how and why, and so on and so forth. |
| 1:19.8 | But the other thing I just want to find out a little bit more about is your price targeting, |
| 1:25.1 | because on one sense, for me at at least cycles means that you must believe |
| 1:30.4 | that you know price is sorry time is more important than price and so on and so forth and and cycles |
| 1:36.5 | you can by observing them and overlaying them and all that I can I can see that I can understand that |
| 1:43.5 | price on the other hand is to me much more difficult |
... |
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