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Top Traders Unplugged

TTU120: Carry - The Good, the Bad and the Ugly ft. Kevin Coldiron

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 23 March 2022

⏱️ 67 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In this episode, Niels and Rob is joined by Kevin Coldiron, co-author of the book “The Rise of Carry” and lecturer in Asset Management at UC Berkeley, to discuss the use of carry trading as a trading strategy, how it relates to volatility and risk, how carry trading creates market feedback effects, and how that is distinct from feedback created by other strategies, how it can play a role in financial bubbles, whether we are still in a carry regime or transitioning away from it and what comes after.

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In This Episode, we discuss:

  • The increasing popularity of carry trading and its role in the global economy
  • The risk and volatility of carry trading, and how it can play a role in financial bubbles
  • How carry trading creates market feedback effects, and how that is distinct from feedback created by other strategies
  • The role of liquidity within the carry world
  • The future of carry

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Episode Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:25 - Introduction to Kevin

05:53 - Background on the co-authors of Kevin’s book

09:43 - Definition of carry trading with examples

13:56 - Volatility vs. risk

23:11 - The role of Volatility in investing

28:27 - Carry trade suppressing volatility

35:55 - Does carry trades play a role in financial bubbles?

41:01 - The current carry regime?

43:38 - Carry in macroeconomics

52:48 - What...

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

If you think about that with the carry trade, situations where you're losing money or you're forced to reduce risk, that's happening in a world where volatility is spiking.

0:18.0

So in a world where basically everyone is trying to reduce risk, so the cost

0:23.8

of kind of managing your leverage in that world can be quite high. That's the unique part of it,

0:30.5

is that the drawdowns happen at really bad times, really expensive times to have to close

0:35.6

your positions and things can get away from you,

0:38.6

I think, especially fast, whereas you might have drawdowns at times where, you know, other people

0:44.7

are not drawing down and therefore it may be easier for you to kind of manage the leverage in that

0:50.5

sort of situation. You're not having everyone looking to reduce risk at the same time.

0:57.4

Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. Imagine learning from their

1:02.4

experiences, their successes, and their failures. Imagine no more. Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged,

1:09.8

the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund

1:12.4

managers in the world so you can take your manager, due diligence, or investment career to the

1:17.3

next level. Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep two things in mind. All the

1:22.7

discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past, and past performance

1:27.0

does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance is about the past, and past performance does not guarantee

1:28.0

or even infer anything about future performance. Also understand that there's a significant risk

1:33.2

of financial loss with all investment strategies, and you need to request and understand

1:37.7

the specific risks from the investment manager about their product before you make investment

1:42.1

decisions. Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Niels Kostrup Larson.

1:52.2

Hey everyone, and welcome back to another edition of Top Traders Unplugged,

1:55.7

where today Robert Carver and I are joined by Kevin Coldiron, who is a co-author of the book, The Rise of

2:02.0

Carrie, which we'll be diving into today. But first off, Kevin, thanks so much for joining us.

...

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