Hello and welcome to the Spectator's Americano podcast, a special series of discussions about the biggest political event of this year, the 2016 US presidential election.

My name is Freddie Gray and I'm Deputy Editor of the Spectator.

And today is Election Day and I'm going to be discussing with our pollster, Marcus Roberts, who is International Projects Director at UGov, what he thinks is going to happen, and does Hillary have this in the bag.

Marcus, I'm here in Washington, and the vibe I'm picking up is a growing confidence among the Democrats that Hillary's got this, as they say.

That's what you think, isn't it?

Very much so.

Having spent the last few days visiting the Clinton campaign field offices, particularly in the Midwest,

I have seen the reasons for that confidence in terms of both data

and organization and have come away very impressed with the performance of the campaign

professionals and the volunteer operations.

And that is really about taking the demographic opportunities that Donald Trump's candidacy have created for Hillary

Clinton and organizing around them. Now, what do I mean by that? I mean that Donald Trump

provided the opportunity to activate large numbers of Hispanic voters and female voters who previously may have

voted in smaller numbers and increased their turnout, as well as increased their preponderance

to vote democratic.

That has taken a lot of data, and that has taken a lot of organization to make real.

But all of the indications are, that's exactly what the Clinton campaign has been able to do.

So what sort of Latino vote split are we looking at in terms of Clinton Trump?

Absolutely historic.

And we use the word historic a lot.

We throw it around in politics all the time. But it's entirely possible that we're looking at something like a 30-point split. Let's take Florida for an example, for one moment and consider the early vote amongst Hispanics in Florida. And one day last week, Thursday, 82.5% of Hispanic early

voters were what we call low propensity voters. That is to say, they are unlikely to turn out.

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