Trump Is Winning His Trade War, Michael Cembalest on 20 Years Running Research at Jpmorgan, Earnings Reactions Galore

The Compound and Friends

Josh Brown

News, Business, Business News, Investing

4.8 • 1.9K Ratings

🗓️ 29 July 2025

⏱️ 131 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

On this TCAF Tuesday, Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset & Wealth Management joins Josh and Michael to mark the 20th anniversary of Eye on the Market, his influential research note that’s become must-read material for investors around the world. We’ll talk about some of the most memorable charts, boldest calls, and enduring themes from his archive—and what they can teach us about the markets today. Then at 01:10:08, hear an all-new episode of What Are Your Thoughts with ⁠⁠⁠⁠Downtown Josh Brown⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠Michael Batnick⁠⁠⁠⁠! This episode is sponsored by Public. Fund your account in five minutes or less by visiting https://public.com/WAYT Sign up for ⁠⁠⁠⁠The Compound Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠ and never miss out! Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://instagram.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠ Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠ Public Disclosure: All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank. Cryptocurrency trading services are offered by Bakkt Crypto Solutions, LLC (NMLS ID 1890144), which is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the NYSDFS. Cryptocurrency is highly speculative, involves a high degree of risk, and has the potential for loss of the entire amount of an investment. Cryptocurrency holdings are not protected by the FDIC or SIPC. Alpha is an experimental AI tool powered by GPT-4. Its output may be inaccurate and is not investment advice. Public makes no guarantees about its accuracy or reliability—verify independently before use. *Rate as of 6/24/25. APY is variable and subject to change. Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of ⁠⁠⁠⁠Ritholtz Wealth Management⁠⁠⁠⁠, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers⁠⁠⁠⁠. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the compound and friends. Today's show is sponsored by Public,
0:05.1	the investing platform for those who take it seriously. Build a multi-asset portfolio of stocks,
0:11.2	bonds, options, crypto, and more on public.com or using the public trading app. You can also
0:18.7	access industry-leading yields like the 4.1% APY you can earn on
0:23.7	your cash with no fees or minimums. What else sets public apart? AI isn't just a feature.
0:30.1	It's woven into the entire experience. And who doesn't love AI? From portfolio insights to
0:35.9	earnings call recaps, public gives you smarter context at every touchpoint.
0:40.9	Find out more at public.com slash w-a-y-t.
0:47.5	Tonight's show is a monster of an episode.
0:51.6	We started the week with Michael Sembolist, legendary, researcher, strategist,
0:57.7	just all around giant of the field. Michael is celebrating 20 years of his eye on the market
1:06.4	research piece, which is probably the most important continuously running piece of research that goes
1:13.2	out to individual investors, wealth managers, financial advisors, family offices, hedge funds,
1:21.0	institutional clients of J.P. Morgan, you name it, everybody reads Sembalist, and Michael
1:26.2	does not do media.
1:31.1	I think we're the only podcast he does.
1:35.6	I think he jumped on with Joe and Tracy once on odd lots, but that's pretty much it.
1:43.7	If you're going to hear from Michael, either you have insane access at J.P. Morgan, or you're going to hear him on the compound and friends. And we really
1:47.6	appreciate him joining us and sharing some of the biggest lessons that he's learned over the
1:52.7	last 20 years, last 35 years actually, since he's been at the bank. So Michael is brilliant,
2:00.7	and we really enjoyed our session with him.
2:03.3	If you haven't watched the video already on YouTube, which came out yesterday, you're in for a
	...

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