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Hello everybody. Welcome into this video. I am Ryan Warmly, alongside Andrew Erickson. We are

fan of pros. We are talking about some overvalued picks to avoid. This is going to be a shorter

video for the folks on YouTube or for the folks listening on audio on the podcast feed. We're

just running through five players here that Erickson is avoiding in 2025 drafts. We're going to go five to one. So kind of his, you know, ending with the guy that he is most avoiding and most thinks is overvalued this season. Erickson, we're keeping it quick. So we'll dive right in. Who's your number five player? Yeah, I'm going to start at the quarterback position here. I'm going to go with Baker Mayfield for the Tampa Bay Buccaneer. So being drafted in that mid-range quarterback one area. And it's just chasing a lot of last year's

statistics. So career high and rushing numbers across the board coming up for career, 7.2% passing

touchdown rate. That was the second highest mark in the NFL. So what do we know that we have to

do every year with

quarterbacks that have the high passing touchdown efficiency numbers? You usually want to

fade those guys the following season. Especially when you look at just projections worm, I use

projections all the time, not necessarily to identify undervalued and overvalued players,

but to kind of just get an idea of where are players that are similarly projected and then are there players going after them that project similarly? And when you look at

Baker Mayfield through some of these medium projections, guys that profile very close to him,

Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy. And those guys go several rounds after Baker Mayfield. So I think

there's better value propositions at the quarterback position, either going much at the elite tier with the top four or five guys or waiting on Russian quarterbacks like the Drake Mays of the world, going in the late runs, or even quarterbacks that are more pocket passers that maybe can post some outlier touchdown efficiency numbers like a Jordan Love, for example. Because with Mayfield, Liam Cohen's gone. They have a new O.C. coming in. I know Baker Mayfield's been productive. Both years he's been in Tampa Bay. He's been the top 10 guy. But if he finishes closer to that 10 range and you draft him as a QB6 or 7, like that's taken a little bit of a loss. And you're missing out on potential breakout candidates at the quarterback position. And most recently, the thing that's kind of, kind of solidified to take for me, whereas Mayfield, I kind of felt like, man, I'm not drafted this guy a ton, but I think that he can probably at least be the QB7. Tristan works, if he's going to miss the first month to see and arguably the best offensive tackle in the NFL, starting fast to

quarterback is integral to success in redraft formats.

And if Baker Mayfield's not firing in the first month of the season, I can't draft that

guy.

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