To Go Too Far or Not Far Enough

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Investing, Business News, News, Business

4.1 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 22 October 2022

⏱️ 33 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The market is all set for a 75-basis-point rate-hike in November, though San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly stoked an equity rally on Friday when she said the central bank should try to avoid an “unforced downturn” by over-tightening. The U.S. dollar softened against major currency pairs, including the Japanese yen in spectacular fashion, and Treasury yields also declined. Saudi Arabia and China are forging new ties over crude oil, as the geopolitical-macroeconomic landscape continues to shift. Ash Bennington welcomes Warren Pies, the founder of 3Fourteen Research, to talk about what the Fed will look at as it determines policy from here, the key factors driving inflation right now, and the state of the global energy market. We also hear from Victor Shih about China’s priorities for the next five years and its changing position in the global economy. Be sure to tune in on Monday, October 24th to watch the conversation between Victor Shih and Maggie Lake. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:37.0	Is 75 bips baked in? Welcome to the real vision daily briefing. It's Friday, October 21st, 2022.
0:44.0	I'm Ash Bennington joined today by Warren Pies founder of 314 research.
0:49.0	Quick reminder, our live chat function on the real vision site is temporarily down.
0:54.0	So please drop us your questions in the comment section of the real vision website in the live chat on YouTube or on Twitter at real vision.
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1:30.0	All right, back to the show. Warren, it's great to have you on with us. First time you and I are doing this really excited today.
1:36.0	Yeah, it's good to be back. It's been a little bit of time.
1:39.0	So it's always good to be on daily briefing.
1:42.0	Warren, I was reading one of your research notes from earlier today.
1:46.0	I just wanted to set this up for us because I think this really does frame out exactly where you're coming from night right now and say the frame for this conversation.
1:54.0	Quote, our base case is that from here, regardless of forward monetary policy, CPI is on the downward trajectory.
2:02.0	The Fed, however, has made it clear that it will not stop with the current tightening cycle until CPI has reverted to two percentish.
2:11.0	If you take Powell at his word, the Fed will not pivot until CPI is back to target and the labor market has balanced.
	...

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