TIP720: Investing Against The Tide

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network

Stig Brodersen

Education, Investing, Business

4.6 • 3.6K Ratings

🗓️ 9 May 2025

⏱️ 65 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

On today’s episode, Kyle Grieve breaks down the contrarian investing philosophy of Anthony Bolton, revealing how he consistently outperformed the market by combining sentiment analysis, in-depth fundamental research, and a flexible yet disciplined portfolio strategy. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 03:27 - The traits Bolton observed in the best fund managers. 04:55 - Why incomplete knowledge can be a strength. 06:56 - A simple method for conviction-based portfolio reviews. 11:48 - What to do when your investments aren't working. 16:05 - The role of sentiment in Bolton’s investing edge. 22:40 - How to spot and avoid artificial conviction. 29:14 - Using bond prices to assess business risk. 31:18 - Why controlling your destiny matters in business. 35:45 - Insights Bolton gained from meeting company management. 01:00:45 - Three big mistakes—and what they taught him. And so much more! Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join Clay and a select group of passionate value investors for a retreat in Big Sky, Montana. Learn more ⁠here⁠. Join the exclusive ⁠TIP Mastermind Community⁠ to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Read Investing Against The Tide here. Follow Kyle on ⁠X⁠ and ⁠LinkedIn⁠. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes ⁠here⁠. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our ⁠Premium Feed⁠. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, ⁠The Intrinsic Value Newsletter⁠. Check out our ⁠We Study Billionaires Starter Packs⁠. Follow our official social media accounts: ⁠X (Twitter)⁠ | ⁠LinkedIn⁠ | ⁠Instagram⁠ | ⁠Facebook⁠ | ⁠TikTok⁠. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) ⁠here⁠. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: ⁠TIP Finance Tool⁠. Enjoy exclusive perks from our ⁠favorite Apps and Services⁠. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the ⁠best business podcasts⁠. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our ⁠sponsors⁠: SimpleMining⁠ ⁠Hardblock⁠ ⁠AnchorWatch⁠ ⁠DeleteMe⁠ ⁠CFI Education⁠ ⁠Vanta⁠ ⁠Indeed⁠ ⁠Shopify⁠ ⁠Vanta⁠ ⁠The Bitcoin Way⁠ ⁠Onramp HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a ⁠rating and review⁠ on ⁠Spotify⁠! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Support our show by becoming a premium member! ⁠https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Transcript

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0:00.0	You're listening to TIP.
0:03.0	Anthony Bolton is one of the most fascinating investors to emerge from the UK.
0:07.0	Over a 28-year period, he compounded at an annual rate of 19.5%
0:12.0	significantly outperforming the market's 13.5% return before stepping away from fund management.
0:17.0	But he couldn't stay retired for long.
0:19.0	He ended up staging a comeback this time, focused on China.
0:23.0	However, things didn't go as planned, and over the course of four years,
0:26.1	his performance was actually negative 5%.
0:28.1	In this episode, we'll focus on what made Bolton such an exceptional investor during his prime.
0:33.9	We'll examine aspects such as the core traits he observed in himself and other top fund managers,
0:39.4	things including vision, temperament, and the ability to anticipate change before it became apparent to others.
0:45.6	Similar to Buffett and Munger, Bolton believed that staying even keeled under pressure was just
0:49.9	far more important than having a sky-high IQ.
0:53.0	We'll also explore a topic that deeply resonates
0:55.7	with me, which is being comfortable with incomplete information. Since Bolton covered so many
1:01.3	sectors and geographies, he had to accept that he'd never know as much as the specialist. And rather
1:06.8	than let that paralyze him, he figured out how to use that reality to his advantage.
1:11.4	We'll dig into how he assessed sentiment not just by ignoring it, but by actively studying it.
1:16.6	While he didn't want to be swept up in market emotions, he had tools to help him gauge where
1:21.0	others' heads were at. One of them? Technical charts. Not just to predict the future, but to
1:26.7	understand where the herd might already
1:28.5	be positioned. I'm not a chartist myself, but Bolton's approach has me rethinking how charts
	...

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